Tropical Storm Ada slowly moving away from Catanduanes

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PAGASA says on Sunday morning, January 18, that Tropical Storm Ada (Nokaen) 'is now less likely to bring significant rainfall,' but scattered rain and thunderstorms are still possible in a few provinces

MANILA, Philippines – Tropical Storm Ada (Nokaen) began to slowly move away from Catanduanes on Sunday morning, January 18, heading north northeast or away from landmass.

Ada was last spotted 140 kilometers northeast of Virac, Catanduanes, at 10 am on Sunday. It has stayed offshore.

The tropical storm’s maximum sustained winds decreased from 85 kilometers per hour to 75 km/h before dawn on Sunday, while its gustiness is up to 90 km/h.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its 11 am bulletin that Ada is likely to remain a tropical storm while moving over the sea east of Luzon.

But Ada could be downgraded to a tropical depression by Tuesday, January 20, and further weaken into a low pressure area by Thursday, January 22, due to the surge of the northeast monsoon or amihan.

While weakening, it is also seen to follow a looping path, as shown in the forecast track below.

PAGASA said in a separate advisory issued at 11 am on Sunday that Ada “is now less likely to bring significant rainfall” to Bicol. But scattered rain and thunderstorms are still possible in Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Isabela within 24 hours.

Earlier, Ada brought moderate to torrential rain, mainly to Caraga, Eastern Visayas, and Bicol.

For winds, only the following areas remain under tropical cyclone wind signals as of 11 am:

Signal No. 2

Gale-force winds (62 to 88 km/h), minor to moderate threat to life and property

• Catanduanes
• eastern part of Camarines Sur (Caramoan)

Signal No. 1

Strong winds (39 to 61 km/h), minimal to minor threat to life and property

• southern part of Quezon (Tagkawayan, Guinayangan, Lopez, Calauag, Buenavista, San Narciso, San Andres, San Francisco, Mulanay, Catanauan, General Luna, Macalelon, Gumaca, Pitogo, Unisan, Atimonan, Plaridel, Agdangan, Padre Burgos, Quezon, Alabat, Perez) including Polillo Islands
• Camarines Norte
• rest of Camarines Sur
• Albay
• Sorsogon
• Ticao and Burias Islands
• Northern Samar

The northeast monsoon and Ada’s periphery are also bringing strong to gale-force gusts to these areas:

Sunday, January 18

• Batanes, Cagayan, Isabela, Quirino, Ilocos Norte, Aurora, Quezon, Bicol, Northern Samar, Samar, Eastern Samar

Monday, January 19

• Batanes, Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Polillo Islands, Catanduanes

Tuesday, January 20

• Batanes, Cagayan, Isabela, Ilocos Norte, Abra, Aurora, Quezon, Lubang Islands, Marinduque, Romblon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes

In addition, there is still a minimal to moderate risk of storm surges with peak heights of up to 2 meters in Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay, and Sorsogon within 24 hours.

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Certain seaboards remain dangerous, especially for small vessels, on Sunday.

Up to rough seas (small vessels should not venture out to sea)

• Seaboards of Isabela, northern Aurora, and Camarines Norte; eastern seaboards of mainland Cagayan and Polillo Islands; northern seaboards of Catanduanes and Camarines Sur – waves up to 4 meters high
• Seaboard of Babuyan Islands; eastern seaboard of Catanduanes – waves up to 3.5 meters high
• Seaboards of Batanes, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, and northern mainland Quezon; northern and western seaboards of Polillo Islands; remaining seaboards of mainland Cagayan and Aurora – waves up to 3 meters high

Up to moderate seas (small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible)

• Eastern seaboards of Albay and Sorsogon; northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar; remaining seaboard of Ilocos Region – waves up to 2.5 meters high
• Eastern seaboard of Eastern Samar – waves up to 2 meters high

Ada is the Philippines’ first tropical cyclone for 2026.

PAGASA expects two to eight tropical cyclones to form within or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility in the first half of 2026. These are the estimates per month:

• January – 0 or 1
• February – 0 or 1
• March – 0 or 1
• April – 0 or 1
• May – 1 or 2
• June – 1 or 2

– Rappler.com