Thin reserves put power grids at risk

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March 26, 2026 | 12:00am

In Visayas

MANILA, Philippines — While the country’s electricity supply stays sufficient, a think tank has warned that the Visayas may face possible power outages due to thin reserves and higher demand this dry season.

The Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities (ICSC) said the Visayas grid is projected to experience yellow alerts in May despite importing electricity from Luzon and Mindanao.

“This may be further aggravated if Luzon and Mindanao need to restrict exports as their reserve margins tighten,” the ICSC said in a recent power outlook for the April to June period.

A yellow alert is issued when the power supply is on the verge of becoming insufficient. It means there is a tight supply, but there is still enough capacity to meet consumer demand.

If conditions worsen, this may escalate to a red alert, which is raised when supply can no longer meet demand and the grid’s contingency requirements.

The first grid alert this year was issued over the Visayas grid in January, a period typically marked by low demand.

The ICSC, however, noted that the Visayas grid is expected to maintain normal reserve levels, counting on the imports of up to 450 megawatts from Mindanao and 250 MW from Luzon.

For Luzon, the think tank expects adequate power reserves, supported by the timely delivery of committed capacities in the first half of 2026.

This includes the first phase of the Meralco Group’s MTerra Solar project in Central Luzon, which has a total projected capacity of 1,785.7 MW.

Mindanao, meanwhile, is likely to maintain normal reserve levels during the dry season as ample generation capacity allows it to meet demand while continuing to supply power to the Visayas grid.

The grid’s tightest period is seen in late April, potentially leading to reduced exports as reserve margins narrow.

“If additional power plants go offline beyond what is expected, this could further aggravate the power outlook and potentially lead to a more grave outcome as available supply would be reduced,” ICSC chief data scientist Jephraim Manansala said.

The ICSC’s projections have not yet also factored in the impact of the ongoing tensions in the Middle East on the country’s power sector.