Rice imports seen to rise 15.9%, as output grows 0.4% – USDA

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MANILA, Philippines — The Philippines is expected to post only modest gains in rice production while sharply increasing imports in the next marketing year, a U.S. agriculture agency report noted.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) Manila dated March 30 forecasts palay production to reach 19.68 million metric tons (MMT) in Marketing Year 2026-2027, a 0.4% increase from the previous cycle.

The growth is expected to be limited, with farm output supported by government programs and favorable dry-season weather but constrained by rising input costs and stagnant planting areas.

Modest gains despite support

The USDA said production gains will be driven by continued government investment, particularly through the expanded Rice Competitiveness Enhancement Fund (RCEF) and the National Rice Program. The fund and program, respectively, have a P30 billion and P30.2 billion budget.

This was complemented by improved seed distribution and favorable weather conditions.

The report, however, stressed that gains would remain marginal as the area harvested is projected to stay flat. Farmers have showed no plans to expand planting due to higher costs for fertilizer, fuel and other inputs.

Rising oil prices are also expected to push up costs for petroleum-based fertilizers, freight and farm machinery, further tempering production growth.

Imports to rise sharply

Despite the slight increase in output, rice imports are projected to climb to 5.10 MMT, up 15.9% from 4.40 MMT in the previous marketing year.

The increase reflects the country's continued supply gap, as domestic production remains insufficient to meet growing demand from a rising population.

The USDA also noted that imports will help rebuild stocks after a four-month rice import ban in late MY 2025-2026, which reduced carryover inventories into the next cycle.

At the same time, the report said import growth could be moderated by a price-indexed tariff system, which adjusts duties between 15% and 35% depending on global rice prices.

Policy response. The tariff mechanism, introduced in January 2026, aims to stabilize domestic prices while protecting farmers and ensuring food security.

Separately, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has capped imported rice prices at P50 per kilo, as part of broader efforts to prevent what officials described as “unreasonable” price increases linked to global oil volatility.