‘Major catalysts to sustain stock rally’

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July 13, 2026 | 12:00am

MANILA, Philippines — The local stock market is expected to trade sideways this week, with investors waiting for major catalysts to support a continued rally.

The Philippine Stock Exchange index managed to maintain its hold above the 6,200 level last week, making a return to the 6,300 level within reach. It closed at 6,286.70 last Friday, up by 1.59 percent week-on-week.

Philstocks Financial research manager Japhet Tantiangco said the local market has shown positive momentum in the last two weeks, climbing a total of 3.53 percent.

He said support from foreign investors were also seen recently with the last six trading days all posting net inflows with a total of P3.76 billion.

“However, trading remains thin with value turnover averaging P5.55 billion last week, implying that the rally is not backed by strong conviction. While the past two weeks have been positive due to bargain hunting, downside risks are still seen for the local bourse,” he said.

This week, Tantiangco said trading is seen to range from 6,150 to 6,400.

The situation in the Middle East is expected to remain a concern among investors, as a re-escalation of tensions which could cause oil prices to rebound may weigh on the local market.

Tantiangco said upside risks to inflation including global oil price volatility, El Niño and inflation expectations remain on the table, which may also weigh on market sentiment.

“Overall, we’ve been seeing positive momentum for the local bourse. So far however, this is seen to be driven mainly by bargain hunting. Downside risks are still in play while no optimistic catalyst is seen yet. Hence, investors are advised to maintain caution,” he said.

2TradeAsia.com, the online arm of F. Yap Securities Inc., recommends staying cautious around interest-sensitive stocks, as the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas is expected to hike rates by 25 basis points anew by year-end.

“June inflation delivered a welcome step in the right direction, but sticky core pressures and geopolitical oil risks mean the BSP tightening cycle is far from over,” it said.

“With upcoming release of second quarter earnings, identify specific earnings plays amid anemic average EPS (earnings per share) growth estimates,” it added.

2TradeAsia.com said banks are seen to deliver resilient net interest margins, with the recent waiver of electronic transfer fees posing a negligible threat to earnings.

It said energy names offer direct hedging value, while parent conglomerates, which are trading at historically wide discounts to net asset value, offer opportunities to play the margin recovery of their underlying subsidiaries.