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Keisha Ta-Asan - The Philippine Star
March 1, 2025 | 12:00am
Vendors attended to their customers buying various food items from their stalls inside the Commonwealth Market in Quezon City on November 22, 2024.
STAR / Miguel De Guzman
MANILA, Philippines — Inflation likely eased in February as lower prices of key food items and negative base effects mitigate the upward price pressures for the month, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said.
Based on the central bank’s month-ahead inflation forecast, the BSP is projecting inflation to settle within the range of 2.2 to three percent in February from 2.9 percent in January.
The BSP’s latest forecast suggests that the consumer price index (CPI) in February could either increase slightly or ease to a four-month low if it falls at 2.2 percent.
“Upward price pressures for the month include higher electricity rates and oil prices, and an increase in the prices of key agricultural commodities such as fish and meat,” the BSP said.
“Nonetheless, these are expected to be offset in part by lower prices of rice, fruits and vegetables as well as negative base effects,” it said.
Despite the expected moderation in inflation, the BSP said it remains vigilant in its policy decisions.
“Going forward, the Monetary Board will continue to take a measured approach in ensuring price stability conducive to balanced and sustainable growth of the economy and employment,” the BSP said.
The February CPI report is set to be released by the Philippine Statistics Authority on March 5.
Jonathan Koh, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank, estimates that the February inflation will come in at 2.5 percent, citing the impact of base effects.
“I think there’s quite a bit of negative base effect in February itself, so that should help to weigh down on inflation,” Koh said.
“Rice prices are also going to be lower, so that should help,” he added.
Koh projects an average inflation rate of 3.1 percent for 2025, noting that it is likely to remain within the BSP’s two to four percent target range this year.
He said higher electricity prices are an upside risk to inflation this year, but lower rice prices should help offset the upward price pressures.
“So we are not as concerned. We do think throughout the year, inflation is probably going to be quite benign,” Koh said.
