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Will this hold under a deal-making president?
While Pete Hegseth, the US defense secretary, visited Manila and assured us of America’s continued support and an even stronger “ironclad” alliance, I can’t help but think that this policy is ephemeral. It will last only as long as US President Donald Trump doesn’t change his mind or until the Philippines is out of his radar.
Still, Hegseth’s message was clear: deterrence is key in the Indo-Pacific region in the face of China’s aggression — and the goal is to achieve “peace through strength.” That’s Trump’s catchphrase, reviving President Ronald Reagan’s ethos. It comes from a Latin phrase that means, “If you want peace, prepare for war.”
What was little noticed was Hegseth’s pledge to prioritize America’s defense strategy. In a press conference with Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr., he said: “What the Trump administration will do is deliver, is truly prioritize and shift this region of the world in a way that is unprecedented…Today it is the Philippines. Tomorrow, it is Japan. It will be Australia and South Korea and other nations in this part of the world.”
In Tokyo, Hegseth’s last stop in his regional visit, he had the same message and added that “We are going to put America first. But America first does not mean America alone.”
‘Pivot to Asia’
This shift is not new. Then-president Barack Obama had his “Pivot to Asia,” but it was criticized as “long promised and often delayed.” This took shape, however, under former President Joe Biden.
Trilateral formations were formed among the US, Japan and South Korea, and the US, Japan and the Philippines. Moreover, the US, Japan, Australia and the Philippines started a quadrilateral forum of defense ministers.
In the West Philippine Sea, we saw US-led multilateral maritime exercises with countries like France, Australia, Japan, and India.
Will Hegseth’s promise of an “unprecedented” shift come through? This depends on whether Trump will allow his defense secretary some degree of autonomy or if he doesn’t upend this shift by entering into deals with China. (More on this latter scenario below.)
‘The Prioritization Imperative’
Prioritizing US defense strategy, as Hegseth mentioned, is an idea proposed by the conservative Heritage Foundation, the same think tank that spearheaded Project 2025, the controversial blueprint for the second Trump presidency.
In a 40-page paper entitled “The Prioritization Imperative: A Strategy to Defend America’s Interests in a More Dangerous World,” the Heritage Foundation argues that America’s military should “prioritize defending the U.S. homeland…preventing China from dominating the Indo-Pacific, most urgently by deterring a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.”
The US should start in the Indo-Pacific, the paper says, first by increasing its investments in America’s deterrence in the Western Pacific, “strengthening the ability of U.S. forces to deny an attempt by Beijing to seize control of Taiwan rapidly before the United States and its allies can respond effectively.” Here are some points in the to-do list for the US, as proposed by Heritage Foundation:
- “Intensify intelligence-gathering on Chinese forces;
- Stockpile weapons required for a Taiwan contingency;
- Harden and dispense US operating locations in the First and Second Island Chains, including by securing and improving US military access in Japan, the Philippines and Australia;
- Shift certain forces from other theaters to the Indo-Pacific, particularly the submarines, air and missile defenses.”
Trump’s silence
So far, Trump has not talked about this shift nor has he mentioned the South China Sea or Southeast Asia in any of his statements or social media posts. This could be a good thing for our part of the world, buoyed by the momentum gained during Biden’s presidency.
The $500-million military funding committed by the past administration is a go. Hegseth also announced the deployment of a new anti-ship missile launcher, the NMESIS or Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System which will be used for the first time in joint military drills, and unmanned surface vehicles; a “bilateral special operation forces training” in Batanes; and the prioritization of “bilateral defense industrial cooperation” which includes “co-producing unmanned systems and increasing logistical support.”
Following Hegseth’s visit, the US State Department announced its approval of a “possible” sale of 20 F-16 aircraft to the Philippines worth $5.58 billion.
Panama Canal
So far, things seem to be moving okay. What could possibly disrupt this?
A deal over the Panama Canal. Remember that Trump threatened to take back control of the Panama Canal because he claimed that Chinese companies are operating this strategic waterway?
Well, a Hongkong-based company, CK Hutchison, announced last month that it was selling its two port operations near the Canal to a group of US investors led by BlackRock. However, this angered President Xi Jinping, according to reports, because CK Hutchison “had not sought his approval for the deal and that he [Xi] had hoped to use the Panama Canal ports as a bargaining chip with Trump.”
The sale, which was supposed to have been signed early this month, was put on hold as China’s anti-trust regulator was set to review it.
One scenario is this, in line with Trump’s sphere-of-influence thinking: He will negotiate with Xi to have control over the Panama Canal and, in return, Xi will ask for strategic autonomy over the South China Sea. Trump can also throw in the sale of major Chinese ports in Latin America to US companies.
That would establish Trump as the leader of his sphere of influence, the Americas.
Let me know what you think. You can email me at marites.vitug@rappler.com.
Till next newsletter!
