Global oil crisis: Is Marcos struggling more than his dad?

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March 25, 2026 | 12:00am

Notes on the beat

History seems to be repeating itself yet again in the Philippines, where a Marcos presidency collides with a global oil crisis.

More than 50 years after the 1973 oil crisis during the presidency of dictator Ferdinand Marcos Sr., the country – now under the leadership of his son and namesake – appears to have learned little from the past.

At the time, the oil industry was regulated, unlike today when private companies control fuel prices. Yet the country’s heavy reliance on imported fuel remains the same enduring challenge.

The outbreak of the US-Israel war with Iran in late February has triggered shockwaves across global oil markets following disruptions to supply flows and damage to critical energy infrastructure.

The Middle East accounts for around 98 percent of the Philippines’ crude oil or unrefined petroleum imports.

For finished products such as gasoline and diesel, the country primarily relies on Asian neighbors. However, most Asian refineries also source crude oil from various producers, including those in the Middle East.

This leaves the Philippines highly vulnerable to global price shocks and supply disruptions, which are felt directly at the domestic pumps.

This week, diesel prices in Metro Manila jumped by P15 to P18 per liter, gasoline by P8 to P12 and kerosene by P12 to P22, Energy Secretary Sharon Garin said yesterday.

The latest adjustments have pushed premium diesel prices past P144 per liter, gasoline above P100 and kerosene to as high as P165.79.

Since the onset of the Middle East conflict, domestic pump prices have already more than doubled.

Despite historically high prices, the government remains more focused on ensuring an adequate fuel supply amid ongoing uncertainties.

Energy expert and columnist Boo Chanco stressed that the Marcos Jr. administration has merely been reacting to a crisis that was already unfolding.

“In the 1970s, we prepared for the eventuality of the crisis happening and devised plans to minimize the negative impact on the consumers,” he told The STAR.

Chanco was among those who worked in Marcos Sr.’s Ministry of Energy, the predecessor of the Department of Energy (DOE).

“We had oil diplomacy then. Strangely, BBM is only now asking the ambassadors abroad to look for oil sources. That’s too late,” he stressed.

Chanco also noted that in the past, the government had explored oil rationing as part of its worst-case scenario preparations, a move that is now being dismissed.

“Sayang (what a waste). They have history to guide them in navigating the current crisis, but our government lacks institutional memory,” he said.

Aside from instituting oil rationing, the government under then president Marcos Sr. established the Philippine National Oil Co. (PNOC) to boost oil exploration and ensure a stable supply of petroleum products.

Over five decades later, PNOC is leading the government’s efforts to secure additional fuel supplies, as the country’s existing stocks are projected to run dry by early May.

Once the crisis subsides, Chanco hopes the current administration will consider implementing long-term measures such as establishing a strategic oil inventory and reducing reliance on the oil product spot market.

As of March 20, the Philippines still had oil stocks equivalent to 45 days of supply, well above the 15-day minimum requirement, DOE data showed.

Although the government has already implemented several measures to cut fuel and energy consumption, former DOE undersecretary Jay Layug said additional steps could still be taken to better navigate the current challenges.

“The government may also consider other measures to help reduce daily consumption of petroleum, including enhancing the electric vehicle program and fast-tracking the transition to renewable energy, among others,” Layug told The STAR.

For economist and columnist Bienvenido Oplas Jr., BBM is “far from” implementing policies similar to those of the 1970s, noting that the current crisis remains relatively “minor” compared to that period.

“Oil shocks in the early 1970s were perhaps four times worse than today,” Oplas said, pointing to the Dubai oil prices that nearly doubled in 1973 and quadrupled in 1974 from just $1.90 in 1972.

Last week, Dubai crude climbed above $134 per barrel after hitting a record high of $166.8.

Oplas, however, said prices may “pull back by the second quarter.”

With tensions in the Middle East showing no clear signs of easing, the outlook for the Philippines remains uncertain in the days ahead.

As the energy chief put it, “only God knows.”