Focus on the economy

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The political circus is back in town and is proving to be a dangerous distraction to what the Marcos administration should focus on, which is the economy that is being shredded by global events.

The current dispensation should take a page from what US President  Donald Trump has succeeded in doing, which is to keep the US economy strong, with the US equities market booming. Unfortunately, Trump’s misstep in the Middle East has somewhat diminished his favorable standing with his political base as inflation has began to creep up due to higher crude oil prices.

Fortunately for Trump, his economic gains are still good enough to keep him alive politically, but a further deterioration in the US economy could badly affect his administration come November when the midterm elections is held and voter sentiment  turns against  his administration due to higher expenditures for the war against Iran and his ambitious remake of several US landmarks to leave his own personal legacy for generations to come.

By the same metric, if President Marcos is not able to keep the Philippine economy healthy, or at least prevent it from seriously tanking in the next couple of months, he will effectively be giving his political opponents a silver platter to feed lies (perhaps partially true) that all his administration did was plunder the government’s coffers, causing the Philippine economy to falter, even if a major contributing  factor in the decline in our economy is   due to global events.

Filipinos don’t care about how the economy works. For most, the government works if it is able to continue with the dole-outs and the leadership responds to populist cries. Give them cake even if the government does not have the funds...tax the rich, just not the politicians, because the public just loves it when the wife of a politician is a social media darling clothed in the most fashionable terno and glittering with gemstones.

What is ironic is that the corruption issue is not limited  to the current administration, it was rampant in the previous administration too. But then former president Rodrigo Duterte was a charismatic populist demagogue who could charm his almost cult-like followers, and who have now thrown their support to his daughter Sara Duterte.

The Duterte cult has been able to politically outplay the son of the Lakay of the North, even turning Imee Marcos against her younger brother, and hoping to divide the once solid north to support the princess of the south in what could be their joint presidential ticket in 2028.

However, according to OCTA Research’s Tinig ng Masa March 2026 survey on a hypothetical 2028 presidential and vice presidential tandem match up, a Sara Duterte and Imee Marcos team garnered only a 40 percent preference nationwide, while a Leni Robredo and Raffy Tulfo ticket showed a higher 44 percent preference.

A more nuanced survey showed  that the nationwide preference of 44 percent for a Robredo-Tulfo ticket for 2028 shows a very strong 61 percent support in the National Capital Region or NCR, 57 percent in Balance Luzon, 48 percent in the Visayas and a very low five percent in Mindanao.

By socioeconomic class, the 44 percent vote for the Robredo-Tulfo tandem showed that 35 percent of  the ABC class would vote  for them, while the greatest preference of 47 percent for such a team comes from the D class, and even a healthy 36 percent preference coming from the E class.

On the other hand, the hypothetical Duterte-Marcos team up shows a very strong preference of  80 percent in Mindanao, 40 percent in the Visayas and a relatively low 23 percent in in NCR and Balance Luzon.

By socioeconomic class, the strong preference for the Sara-Imee partnership comes from the E class with 51 percent, 39 percent from the D class, and 37 percent from the ABC class.

The undecided vote nationwide is 16 percent.

Thus, a political distraction at this time would be in favor of the party that wants the current administration to shift its focus from the real economic problem facing the country.

An offer to do an interview and delve deeper into the effect of the continuing Middle East conflict  had pointed out that the Middle East  conflict and continued prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with soaring fertilizer and feed prices, are pushing Southeast Asia toward a critical food security crisis,  impacting farmer livelihoods, animal health and ultimately,  food supply across the region.

It was brought to my attention that in Malaysia, fertilizer costs have skyrocketed by 100 to 150 percent,  with animal feeds accounting for 60 to 70 percent  of poultry production costs.  Malaysian farmers’ margins are being severely squeezed.

The Philippines, likewise, it was pointed out,  faces a worst-case scenario of a 50 percent  price hike for essential goods like rice, pork and chicken.

In Singapore, a major food importer, it was  also cited, is  at risk.

It is already clear that the ongoing drama in the Senate that was sprung on the public at the start of the week to once again distract the government from focusing on the economy. Instead, what we have right now is political drama. Fireworks, perhaps military upheaval.

It will be recalled that one of the key support of former president Rodrigo Duterte came from the retired leadership of the military through his benevolent grant of a very cushy pension  support even though there is no direct individual contribution from the concerned military personnel, unlike the Government Service Insurance Service or GSIS pension plan which depends on the regular contribution from government workers, and likewise from the private sector Social Security System or SSS pension plan to which private sector employees are mandated to contribute, with the contribution automatically deducted from their paycheck.

The military pension plan depends entirely on government funds.