[DECODED] Senate 2025: Who’s winning the race for clicks and votes?

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We’ve seen a clear link between online buzz and survey performance. Buzz builds momentum. Momentum builds numbers

MANILA, Philippines – Over the past few months, with support from The Nerve, I’ve been tracking how senatorial candidates are being talked about online, across social media platforms and news sites.

We began in August 2024, monitoring the digital presence of then-potential Senate hopefuls. Some politicians tried to ride the wave of Olympic victory, tapping into national pride to boost their visibility.

In late September, just weeks before the filing of certificates of candidacy opened, Dr. Willie Ong revealed his cancer diagnosis. The timing of his announcement was telling. He dominated online conversations that month. Ong was among those who have a solid base online with 17 million followers on Facebook. 

Shortly after, Ong officially declared his Senate bid, voicing frustration over the state of the Philippine healthcare system and vowing to fix it if elected. His story drew sympathy and support, but also doubts. Some questioned whether his illness made him unfit for office. Eventually, Ong withdrew from the race due to health reasons.

Meanwhile, the shadow of Duterte’s brutal drug war continued to follow his allies. A congressional probe into the former president dragged Ronald “Bato” Dela Rosa and Bong Go, both seeking reelection, back into the headlines from October 1 to November 30, 2024.

Dela Rosa’s online numbers dipped in November 2024. In contrast, Go maintained visibility, largely due to media coverage of his public initiatives. 

Pop culture also proved to be a political wildcard. On the first day of 2025, a teaser for The Rapists of Pepsi Paloma was released, dragging former senator Tito Sotto back into the public eye. 

The story dates back to 1982, when 15-year-old actress Pepsi Paloma accused television host Vic Sotto and comedians Joey de Leon and Richie D’Horsie of rape. Vic is Sotto’s brother and co-host on the noontime show Eat Bulaga!

While the trailer didn’t name him, it reignited discussions about his alleged involvement in the 1980s controversy.

According to The Nerve’s data, 30% of online conversations about Sotto from December 1, 2024 to January 15, 2025, were linked to Paloma. A judge later ordered the teaser to be taken down, and the film’s release was shelved following public backlash.

In March, reelectionist Senator Imee Marcos found herself under fire for her shifting allegiances between her family and Duterte factions. Her public criticism of his brother, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.— following the arrest of Rodrigo Duterte — sparked controversy. Duterte is facing charges of crimes against humanity before the International Criminal Court over the thousands of alleged extrajudicial killings during his war on drugs.

Though she withdrew from the administration’s senatorial slate, she later secured the endorsement of her dear friend and her brother’s nemesis, Vice President Sara Duterte.

Online, users called her “namamangka sa dalawang ilog” (paddling between two rivers) and “doble kara” (two-faced), accusing her of switching sides to suit her political needs. Some even criticized her for turning against her own brother.

Around the same time, Dela Rosa and Go gained sympathy online for their vocal defense of Duterte, an uptick that was reflected in survey results.

The latest survey from the Pulse Asia survey conducted in late April showed that Marcos’ administration slate dominated the “Magic 12.” But it is projected that Go will lead the race, while Dela Rosa is in between the 2nd and 4th spot with a 41% preference rating. 

Across the board, we’ve seen a clear link between online buzz and survey performance. Buzz builds momentum. Momentum builds numbers.

But as Filipinos head to the polls, I hope we take a step back. Let’s think critically about what shapes our opinions and what kind of leaders our country really needs. — Rappler.com

This story is part of Rappler and The Nerve’s ongoing series capturing social media trends and public sentiment surrounding the top senatorial candidates for the 2025 midterm elections.

Decoded is a Rappler series that explores the challenges and opportunities that come with living in transformative times. It is produced by The Nerve, a data forensics company that enables changemakers to navigate real-world trends and issues through narrative and network investigations. Taking the best of human and machine, we enable partners to unlock powerful insights that shape informed decisions. Composed of a team of data scientists, strategists, award-winning storytellers, and designers, the company is on a mission to deliver data with real-world impact.