Can Philippines fuel buffer protect consumers from price shocks?

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March 6, 2026 | 12:20am

MANILA, Philippines —  Couple Robert, 62, and Apple Calpe, 56, worry that the ongoing Middle East war could make liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) prices soar, and threaten their small food cart business.

“We’re concerned that our livelihood will be affected. We can’t raise the prices of our food because most of our customers are students,” Robert told The STAR in Filipino.

Apple said they spend roughly P290 on cooking oil daily and over P900 for an 11-kilo LPG tank, which only lasts about three weeks.

The couple, who run a food cart near a public school in Taguig, fear that these costs, along with prices of other basic goods and commodities, could rise even further as geopolitical tensions continue.

President Marcos has said the country’s current fuel stockpiles can last about 29 days for LPG; 50 days for diesel, gasoline and fuel oil, and 67 days for kerosene.

But an industry source pointed out that most refined fuel products in stockpiles have floating prices. This means their costs move with current market rates.

“It is thus inevitable that inventories are susceptible to price fluctuations and shocks should there be a rapid increase or decrease,” the source told The STAR on condition of anonymity.

At worst, if the conflict drags on, local oil companies may have no choice but to source fuel at significantly higher prices.

The Philippines’ only remaining refinery in Bataan currently sources around 98 percent of its crude oil or unrefined petroleum imports from the Middle East, according to the Department of Energy (DOE).

For household LPG, meanwhile, the country primarily imports from Asian countries.

However, Asian refineries also rely on crude oil from multiple producing countries, including those in the Middle East.

The regional benchmark Dubai crude is already trading above $80 per barrel, signaling a likely spike in local pump prices as early as next Tuesday.

Energy Secretary Sharon Garin said oil firms are “amenable” to staggering the price increases despite the potential losses they may incur.

“Let’s not panic because we are assessing the situation internationally. The supply is not the issue; it’s a matter of price,” Garin said in a radio interview yesterday.

Local diesel and kerosene prices have been rising for 10 consecutive weeks, while gasoline has increased eight times in a row.

Average per-liter prices of gasoline stand at P56.40, diesel at P61.99 and kerosene at P86.17, according to latest DOE data.

Transport group MANIBELA said the continued rise in fuel prices has dealt a heavy blow to the transportation sector, particularly to public utility vehicle drivers.

“We hope government agencies will come up with immediate solutions to ease the suffering of Filipinos,” MANIBELA chairman Mar Valbuena said, stressing the need to suspend fuel taxes.

DOE director Patrick Aquino, for his part, has encouraged the public to adopt fuel-saving measures such as carpooling to reduce consumption.

Motorists, Aquino noted, should also avoid hard braking and aggressive driving, as doing such can increase fuel consumption by 15 to 40 percent.

A car owner may waste up to P3,712 per month, while buses and trucks can lose as much as P12,480, based on DOE estimates.