Baste, Leni, Robin lead Senate preference survey

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MANILA, Philippines — A recent Senate election preference survey conducted by Arkipelago Analytics shows a tight race at the top, with Sebastian “Baste” Duterte, Leni Robredo and Robinhood Padilla sharing the lead.

Each of the three candidates received 48 percent voter preference, placing them in a three-way tie for first to third place.

Following closely behind are Vico Sotto and Loren Legarda, who both recorded 45 percent voter preference and ranked fourth to fifth. Raffy Tulfo and Alan Peter Cayetano followed with 42 percent each, placing them in sixth to seventh place.

Rounding out the top 10 are Pulong Duterte, Francis Escudero and Mark Villar, each registering 39 percent voter preference. Jose Sixto Gonzales III “Dingdong” Dantes and Grace Poe completed the current top 12, both receiving 35 percent voter preference.

The survey also showed several candidates within striking distance of the winning circle. Jinggoy Estrada, Ben Bitag Tulfo, Nancy Binay, Joy Belmonte and Jose Marie Borja Viceral, popularly known as Vice Ganda, each posted 33 percent, placing them in a five-way tie for 13th to 17th place. Jimmy Bondoc, Sonny Angara and Manny Pacquiao followed with 30 percent each, ranking 18th to 20th.

Other candidates continued to register measurable support among voters. Rex Gatchalian and JV Ejercito both received 28 percent, while Rowena Guanzon, Mike Defensor and Bong Revilla each posted 27 percent. Vince Dizon and Ralph Recto followed with 24 percent each, while Benhur Abalos, Franklin Drilon and Mar Roxas each received 21 percent.

Further down the list, Gringo Honasan, Francis Tolentino and Heidi Mendoza each registered 19 percent voter preference, ranking 31st to 33rd. Philip Salvador, Willie Revillame and Bonifacio Bosita followed with 14 percent each.

Chel Diokno and Doc Marites Mata each received eight percent voter preference, while Vic Rodriguez and Antonio Trillanes posted seven percent each. Teddy Casiño and Ka Leody de Guzman followed with five percent each. Apollo Quiboloy, France Castro and Martin Romualdez rounded out the list of candidates included in the survey, each registering four percent voter preference.

The results suggest that while the top three candidates currently share a clear lead, the Senate preference landscape remains competitive. The narrow gaps among several candidates in the upper rankings indicated that voter movement in the coming months could still affect the final composition of the top twelve.

At the same time, the inclusion of all listed candidates showed a broader field with varying levels of voter support across the national sample.

The survey was conducted from May 26 to June 2 through face-to-face interviews with a nationally representative sample of 2,637 adults aged 18 years and above. The sampling design employed regional stratification across all 18 regions and further classification by urban and rural clusters.

Weighting adjustments were applied to align the regional distribution of respondents with Comelec’s latest voter registration data, totaling 68,618,667 registered voters.

The final weighted regional proportions were 11 percent NCR, 45 percent Luzon excluding NCR, 20 percent Visayas and 24 percent Mindanao. Gender distribution was likewise aligned with Comelec data at 51 percent female and 49 percent male.

Socioeconomic classification followed established consumer segmentation standards in the Philippines, with respondents distributed as seven percent from Class ABC, 75 percent from Class D and 18 percent from Class E.