ADB to cut Philippines growth forecasts

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December 8, 2025 | 12:00am

MANILA, Philippines — The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is lowering its growth forecasts for the Philippines for the current year and 2026 following the sharp slowdown in the country’s third quarter economic growth performance.

“We are revising things downward,” ADB country director for the Philippines Andrew Jeffries told reporters on the sidelines of the European Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines’ 2026 Philippine Economic Outlook forum.

He said the new growth forecasts would be reflected in the Asian Development Outlook report to be released on Dec. 10.

This means that for this year, the new growth forecast is expected to be below the government’s 5.5 to 6.5 percent growth target for 2025.

In a report released in September, the ADB said it expected the Philippine economy to grow by 5.6 percent for this year.

The same report showed that the ADB trimmed its 2026 growth forecast to 5.7 percent from 5.8 percent previously.

The ADB’s 2026 growth forecast is lower than the government’s six to seven percent growth target for next year.

The multilateral lender is revising its growth projections for the Philippines after the economy posted four percent growth in the third quarter, the slowest in four years.

This brought average economic growth from January to September to five percent, short of this year’s growth target.

Earlier, Department of Economy, Planning and Development Secretary Arsenio Balisacan attributed the sharp slowdown in third quarter gross domestic product growth to the contraction in public construction following stricter validation measures amid corruption issues in flood control projects that have also affected consumer and investor sentiment.

Jeffries said reforms to address governance issues are expected to improve investor sentiment.

“What can the government do about it, I think, is just take the concerns seriously and push forward with some of the changes and reforms and improvements that have been talked about,” he said.

“I think just following through on that would be the most important thing to just reverse the segments of investors where sentiment has gone down,” he said further.

Amid challenges including governance issues, Balisacan said it is unlikely for the country to achieve its economic growth target for the year.

“We need to grow roughly seven percent in the fourth quarter to achieve a 5.5-percent growth for the year. Given the situations and the data that are coming out, that’s quite unlikely,” Balisacan said.

He said the Development Budget Coordination Committee, which sets the government’s growth targets, is set to meet on Dec. 9, to revisit growth goals.