55 percent chance of weak La Niña in Q1 – WMO

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January 1, 2026 | 12:00am

MANILA, Philippines — There is a 55 percent chance of a weak La Niña impacting weather and climate patterns during the next three months, according to the United Nations weather agency.

In its update, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said even though La Niña has a temporary cooling influence on global average temperatures, many regions are still expected to be warmer than normal.

La Niña refers to the periodic large-scale cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, coupled with changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation, including changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns.

According to the latest forecasts from the WMO Global Producing Centers for Seasonal Prediction, as of mid-November 2025, oceanic and atmospheric indicators revealed borderline La Niña conditions. 

For January-March and February-April 2026, the likelihood of returning to El Niño, La Niña and the Southern Oscillation or ENSO-neutral conditions gradually rises from about 65 percent to 75 percent.

There is little likelihood of an El Niño – which typically has opposite impacts.

The WMO said seasonal forecasts for El Niño and La Niña are essential planning tools for climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, energy, health and transport. 

Naturally occurring large-scale climate events such as La Niña and El Niño are taking place in the broader context of human-induced climate change.