World Cup 2026: How are the favorites shaping up?

With the start of the 2026 World Cup in North America now barely three weeks away, AFP Sport runs the rule over the leading contenders at the first-ever 48-team finals (world ranking in brackets):

France (1)

PSG’s Ousmane Dembele celebrates after scoring their first goal during the Champions League semifinal second leg soccer match between Bayern Munich and Paris Saint Germain in Munich, Germany, Wednesday, May 6, 2026. (Sven Hoppe/dpa via AP)

Les Bleus have won the World Cup twice and lost two finals on penalties in the last seven editions. This will be their last tournament before long-serving coach Didier Deschamps steps down. “It’s a strange feeling,” admitted Deschamps, in charge since 2012.

France beat Brazil 2-1 in March and then defeated Colombia 3-1 with an entirely different starting line-up, with those games both played in the US. Unbeaten in nine matches since last June, France has a fearsome attack featuring reigning Ballon d’Or Ousmane Dembele, Kylian Mbappe, Michael Olise and Rayan Cherki. They will take some stopping.

Spain (2)

Barcelona’s Lamine Yamal celebrates during the Spanish La Liga soccer match between Barcelona and Espanyol in Barcelona, Spain, Saturday, April 11, 2026. (AP Photo/Joan Monfort)

The European champions have not lost since winning Euro 2024. Luis de la Fuente’s team is a perfectly-oiled machine in which the standout player is teenage superstar Lamine Yamal. But the 18-year-old Barcelona winger is currently out with a hamstring injury, and reports suggest he might miss their first two group games.

His Barcelona teammate Fermin Lopez is set to miss out entirely with a foot fracture. Arsenal’s Mikel Merino, scorer of eight goals for Spain in 10 games in 2025, has not played since January due to injury. But La Roja still boast fearsome quality — think 2024 Ballon d’Or winner Rodri, or Pedri.

Argentina (3)

Argentina’s Lionel Messi celebrates scoring his side’s third goal against Venezuela during a World Cup 2026 qualifying soccer match at the Monumental stadium in Buenos Aires, Argentina, Thursday, Sept. 4, 2025. (AP Photo/Gustavo Garello)

Lionel Scaloni’s Argentina is dreaming of retaining the title it won in 2022. That tournament marked Lionel Messi’s crowning glory, and it is hard to see how he can hit the same heights again, given he turns 39 next month.

Nevertheless, Messi is very much at home in the US now and has 12 goals in 13 MLS games for Inter Miami this year.

Argentina also won the 2024 Copa America in the USA and comfortably topped South American qualifying. Beyond Messi they boast a wealth of attacking talent, including Lautaro Martinez, Julian Alvarez, and Nico Paz, the Tenerife-born attacking midfielder with Como.

England (4)

England’s forward #09 Harry Kane reacts after losing the UEFA Euro 2024 final football match between Spain and England at the Olympiastadion in Berlin on July 14, 2024. (Photo by Jewel SAMAD / AFP)

After several near misses under Gareth Southgate, with agonizing defeats in the finals of the last two Euros and exits from the 2018 World Cup in the semi-finals and the 2022 quarters, England now hopse German Thomas Tuchel can deliver a first title since 1966.

England cruised through qualifying and has formidable depth but there are some doubts. It drew with Uruguay and lost to Japan in March friendlies, while big names like Jude Bellingham and Cole Palmer have not had straightforward campaigns. However, it will hope Harry Kane continues the remarkable form he has shown with Bayern Munich, for whom he has 58 goals this season.

Portugal (5)

FILE – Portugal’s Cristiano Ronaldo celebrates after scoring during a World Cup 2026 group F qualifying soccer match between Portugal and Hungary in Lisbon, Oct. 14, 2025. (AP Photo/Armando Franca, File)

Portugal, which has never gone beyond the semi-finals, is a serious candidate — provided it is not held back by the possibly overbearing presence of Cristiano Ronaldo.

At 41, this will be his sixth World Cup, but the quality of their midfield –- Vitinha, Joao Neves, Bernardo Silva, Bruno Fernandes –- could be the key.

UEFA Nations League winners last year, Portugal stumbled a little in qualifying, losing in Ireland as Ronaldo was sent off. Ronaldo did not play in their last game, a 2-0 friendly win over the USA in Atlanta.

Brazil (6)

An image of Brazilian footballer Neymar Jr. is projected onto two giant screens during an event to announce Brazil’s squad for the 2026 FIFA World Cup at the Museum of Tomorrow, in downtown Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on May 18, 2026. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)

Brazil’s progress under new coach Carlo Ancelotti will be fascinating to watch. That the Selecao felt it necessary to turn to an Italian says much about Brazil’s ongoing footballing identity crisis, and their current lack of depth has been exposed by Ancelotti’s decision to name Neymar in his squad.

Now 34 and playing for Santos, Neymar has not been capped since 2023, and Vinicius Junior is Brazil’s attacking leader now.

Since winning their fifth title in 2002, Brazil have only reached the semi-finals once, when they were humiliated 7-1 by Germany as hosts in 2014. They finished fifth in South American qualifying, losing six of 18 games.

“The World Cup won’t be won by a perfect team — because a perfect team doesn’t exist,” insists Ancelotti. “It will be won by the most resilient team.”

Germany (10)

Arsenal’s Kai Havertz celebrates scoring their side’s first goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Arsenal and Burnley in London, Monday May 18, 2026. (John Walton/PA via AP)

Julian Nagelsmann’s side sit behind the Netherlands, Morocco and Belgium in the rankings and it seems a stretch to suggest Germany could win a first World Cup since 2014.

They suffered group-stage exits in 2018 and 2022, and lost in the Euro 2024 quarter-finals as hosts. However, the class of Joshua Kimmich, Florian Wirtz and Kai Havertz ensure Germany should be taken seriously.