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On the night of March 11, Vice President Sara Duterte waited outside Gate 1 of Villamor Air base, attempting to enter and speak with her father, former president Rodrigo Duterte, before he was flown to the Netherlands following his arrest.
Sara remained composed and calm, a stark contrast to her previous reaction when her chief of staff was detained by the House of Representatives, an incident that triggered her threat to President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., which has since become the subject of a government investigation.
While 2024 was undeniably tough for her, 2025 seems to be even more challenging. The House impeached her in February, and her father was issued an arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court (ICC) this March over his brutal drug war, which human rights groups claim killed around 30,000 people.
Sara said the battles her family is facing are being caused by her being a strong contender for the 2028 presidential elections. At Villamor, the Vice President claimed that the rival camp — alluding to the Marcos administration — took these actions because of what she described as “bloc voting” by their supporters for the Partido ng Demokratiko Pilipino-Lakas ng Bayan’s (PDP-Laban) nine senatorial candidates.
“Sobrang lakas ng bloc voting ngayon. This is all about the 2028 elections. And I’m warning you, kung meron man 2028 elections. Tapos, sumunod ay impeachment para tanggalin ‘yung kalaban, posibleng kalaban. Ngayon, dahil lumalakas yung PDP bloc voting of nine candidates, tatanggalin nila si [former] president Duterte,” Sara said.
(The bloc voting is really strong right now. This is all about the 2028 elections. And I’m warning you, if there will even be 2028 elections. Then, next will be impeachment to remove the opponent, possibly an opponent. Now, because the PDP’s bloc voting of nine candidates is getting stronger, they will remove [former] president Duterte.)
The 2025 midterm elections are crucial for the Dutertes, especially for the Vice President, due to her looming impeachment trial in the Senate, which could boot her out and prevent her from running for president in 2028.
Senate President Chiz Escudero initially set the trial for July 30. Sara needs to secure the support of eight senators to ensure her acquittal in the impeachment case, which stems from allegations of large-scale corruption.
Sara has not joined any PDP sorties. However, at the party’s national kickoff on February 13, the Vice President endorsed the PDP’s nine-senatorial slate through a video message. The slate includes the following:
- Jimmy Bondoc
- Bato dela Rosa
- Bong Go
- Jayvee Hinlo
- Raul Lambino
- Rodante Marcoleta
- Apollo Quiboloy
- Vic Rodriguez
- Philip Salvador
“Ako ay nagtitiwalang nasa taong bayang ang kapangyarihang baguhin ang kasalukuyang takbo ng ating bayan sa pamamagitan ng pagboto sa mga taong karapat-dapat, tapat at matiyagang maglilingkod sa bayan,” the Vice President said.
(I trust that the power to change the current course of our country lies with the people, by voting for those who are deserving, honest, and diligent in serving the nation.)
In the latest Pulse Asia survey conducted in February, only reelectionists Go and Dela Rosa made it to the winning circle, placing first to second and fourth to seventh, respectively. The closest PDP candidate to the so-called magic 12 was actor Philip Salvador, who ranked between 17th and 20th. The others ranked between 20th and 27th.
With the elections still two months away, and based on the recent survey results, it seems unlikely that the PDP will secure all nine senatorial slots. But can the Vice President turn the tide for them?
Sara’s plummeting ratings
Political observers have said that it’s the former president who truly has the political base, and that Sara is simply riding on the Duterte brand. Since her fallout with her former ally, the President, her trust and approval ratings have declined.
The Vice President’s satisfaction ratings began to decline in June 2024, when she resigned from the Marcos Cabinet as education secretary. Since then, she has faced attacks from critics and has been the subject of a congressional probe over her alleged misuse of large confidential funds, which ultimately contributed to her impeachment by the House.
If Sara’s ratings are taking a nosedive, can her endorsement still give PDP candidates the boost they need — especially with their party chairman banished to The Hague?
Since her father’s arrest, Sara appears to be adopting an underdog strategy. This became evident when she faced the media after being denied entry to Villamor. Instead of insisting on entering, which is quite unlike her, she chose not to press the issue. She chose her words carefully, presenting herself as the “soft” Duterte, letting things unfold as if she hadn’t cursed at the First Family during a midnight briefing when her longtime aide, Zuleika Lopez, was ordered transferred to a women’s prison (the transfer never took place).
Sara’s calmness during her father’s arrest surprised many, especially since it was her father at the center of the situation. Instead of reacting emotionally, she simply said she would follow him to The Hague and offered him advice, such as not accepting food or water from anyone there.
Kiss of death?
Political analyst Joel Salgado said that the former president’s arrest has partly shifted the dynamics of the midterm elections.
“If you asked me that question a week ago, I would have said it’s a kiss of death. But the arrest of her father has shifted the dynamics. Not enough to wipe out the administration slate, but enough to possibly boost the chances of a few candidates. It’s no guarantee of winning, though,” Salgado said when asked if Sara’s endorsement would help PDP bets.
Salgado said that, as of today, Marcos’ Alyansa para sa Bagong Pilipinas slate still holds the advantage. Similar to the January 2025 survey, eight of the candidates in the “winning circle” are from administration slate.
The PDP-Laban candidates have leveraged the Vice President’s looming impeachment trial to gain voter support. When Sara was impeached by the House, they appealed to Duterte supporters, urging them to vote for them to ensure the Vice President would have enough backing in the Senate during the next Congress to secure an acquittal. With Rodrigo’s arrest, it’s expected that both the Vice President and the PDP candidates will capitalize on the former president’s situation to woo supporters.
Political analyst and Ateneo de Manila professor Arjan Aguirre suggested that Sara could leverage her father’s popularity to “salvage” her declining ratings. He believes the “Duterte base” remains strong, as evidenced by their sustained social media presence and influence.
“The popularity of Rodrigo may not be transferrable but I think what’s happening is that VP Sara is forced to use her father’s popularity to salvage her tarnished image. What the Duterte faction is doing is to make sure that their dynasty survives the rift with the Marcos-Romualdez,” Aguirre said.
While Sara’s ratings are declining, Marcos’ ratings are also suffering. However, the administration slate still holds the advantage due to its resources and political machinery. Since Rodrigo’s arrest, several pro-Duterte nationwide mobilizations have called for the “safe return” of the former president to the country. Petitions have been filed before the Supreme Court challenging the arrest, arguing that it was illegal since the Philippines is no longer a member state of the ICC. (Rappler has published an explainer on the issue. You can read it here.)
“Can they sustain the tide of protest? The administration is surely taking steps to make sure that the outburst is temporary and will not turn into protest votes. They’re playing the long game. I’m sure they are making adjustments to the campaign strategy,” Salgado said.
Will the 2025 midterms work in the Dutertes’ favor, or will this mark the end of their political influence? – Rappler.com
*Graph and data from Patrick Cruz of Rappler’s Research Unit
