What are the big trends of FY25 so far?

With Q1 nearly over, I got this question from a reader (thanks Trisha!): “What do you think are the big positive and negative trends of FY25 so far?” I thought that was kind of fun. I dig in each morning and try to give an update on what happened the day before, and the repetition of that process can make it difficult to appreciate narratives with a longer arc.

A few things to keep in mind, though. These "trends" are more like observations, and less like data-backed research. I'm just doing a fun 360 review of the year (so far), to make note of what's hot, cold, new, or old.

> E-Gambling is red-hot:  PLUS’s massive rise is the stuff of post-COVID legend, but now we’re seeing some old e-gambling friends like WEB starting to shake off the rust, and e-gambling shovel-makers like DFNN twitch to life. The action is so hot it’s even pushed one of the PSE’s strongest casino-resort players, BLOOM, to clumsily lurch into the e-gambling arena with a press release that felt a little too “Hello fellow kids” for my liking.

> … but not casinos:  The reason for BLOOM’s FOMO is obvious when you look at its stock chart. After a long period of blue-sky recovery through 2023 and into 2024, the physical casino game has lost a lot of its shine. Maybe the stink of Dennis Uy’s PHR ruined it for everybody. Maybe the broad shifts in consumer behavior are also to blame. Maybe the superior gaming hubs in other SE Asian countries have pulled bettors away from our haphazard network of disconnected gaming sites. Maybe it’s all that and more.

> The PSE is still struggling to attract IPOs:  Looks like FY25 will be yet another year of missed IPO targets for the PSE, which holds a monopoly on public listings in the country. Sure, Top Line is going through the process now (more power to them), but where are all the other mid-level regional companies that need capital to grow? Where are all the startups looking to sell a share of a dream? It wasn’t a great sign that we got our first notice of delisting before we had our first approved IPO.

> Our banks have never been richer:  Show me a universal bank, and I’ll show you a family with a license to print money. Our banks ended FY24 setting record after profitability record, and with rates still elevated and a BSP doling out RRR cuts like white envelopes at a political campaign rally, it doesn’t look like the profit party is ending any time soon. The best (worst) part? Seems like they all conveniently forgot to eliminate fees on small value transfers, and the BSP seems totally fine with that. Whoopsies! At least the poor aren’t being forced into the banking system by the BSP’s long-term regulatory framework plan. Oh my, double whoopsies!

> We still can’t short sh*t:  Sorry for being crude, but this one pisses me off. The PSE was so satisfied to hastily push its premature baby out onto the cold metal table, but while the exchange was quick to light a cigar in celebration, it seemed to have forgotten to invite the brokers to the party. It also seems to have forgotten about the baby. It’s been more than two years since the announcement that shorting was “technically” possible, and here we are, in 2025, and I still can’t place a bet that a stock will go down. I can short exotic shitcoins on crypto exchanges made by literal high-school students, but I can’t do it on one of the oldest exchanges in SE Asia. 

> The new brokers are trying fresh things:  The rise of the youth-facing discount broker is something that I don’t think gets enough attention. From DragonFi to Luna, Investagrams, and the twins (GCash and Maya), traders have never had a better array of options. Unfortunately, their innovative work can only do so much. They can’t just suddenly snap their fingers and manifest something new and hip, like “market orders”. Still, I appreciate the focus on lower fees, improved UI, and better customer service. 

> GCash isn’t changing the game:  By the PSE’s own projections, the market should have a few million more investors by now due to the GStocks portion of the GCash mega app. There’s no doubt this inclusion in GCash’s cluttered UI has made it easier for new investors to place their first trades, but the complete lack of hype from GCash or the PSE on the performance of GStocks is telling. Where is the tidal wave of noobs gobbling up all the junky stocks like locusts? Maybe it’s a slow burn. Not saying it’s a dud. Just that it hasn’t changed the game (yet).

>  The consumer has come back to life:  Mall foot traffic is back to pre-pandemic levels. In some places, it’s even higher. Airline passenger volumes are approaching pre-pandemic levels. Consumers are taking out loans, buying cars, buying appliances, and spending money all over the place. But...

> Just one small problem:  They’re paying more and getting less. Inflation has crippled the purchasing power of money, and some things (like home ownership) have never been more out-of-reach. We’ve seen a healthy dose of sales increases across several public-facing business sectors: how much of this trend is simply the effect of higher prices due to inflation?

> Gold is at an all-time high:  At the time of writing, an ounce of gold costs more than US $3,000. That’s a record high. Is this just a sign of the uncertain times thanks to Trump’s janky trade wars, or is it a signal for something that is perhaps more long-term in nature? Or is it just a manifestation of fiat weakness from all the money printing that’s been done across the globe thanks to the COVID pandemic and everything that’s happened after it?

> The crypto shitcoin cycle is dead:  The brief euphoria that we experienced in the crypto and shitcoin world was unceremoniously rugpulled by $MELANIA. The vibes got real ugly, real quick, and now everything including Daddy BTC and its weird cousin ETH have been hit by the fallout. For new crypto investors, it was probably just an expensive introduction to risk and the delicious danger of putting thousands of dollars into unregulated meme financial products. For me, it was Tuesday. I’ve been holding since 2012. This happens all the time.

MB bottom-line: It’s a market only a mother could love, but it’s my market and I’m doing my best to protect my pesos from getting eaten alive by inflation while giving myself a decent chance at some fun upside. Sure, I shouldn’t worry too much about things I can’t control (99.99% of everything), but part of my goal here is to help newer traders learn the ropes, and sometimes that means airing out the market’s dirty laundry in public.

The truth is that I do this more as an advocacy than as a real business. I have two employees who help me a lot, and while that’s allowed me to grow MB’s reach to more readers across more platforms, my basic reason for doing this has always been to try and make it easier for the next person.

Are these trends useful? Maybe. They’re just my observations as a guy who spends too many hours a day digging through disclosures and soaking in this weird little world. It felt a little bit like journaling, so there’s a chance the only person in the world this helps is me. But if anything here has plucked a string in the back of your brain that is still humming now, whether it was to investigate a potential correlation between gold prices and inflation or just to uplift your mood, that’s something that is worthwhile to me. If you’ve made it this far, thanks for reading.

You’re a legend.