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While President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr.'s allies are likely to retain control of Congress after the midterm polls, a worsening conflict with Vice President Sara Z. Duterte-Carpio and her impeachment, alongside the economic struggles of ordinary Filipinos, may challenge the administration's hold on power, according to the think tank Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).
"EIU does not expect a rift between the Philippine President, Ferdinand 'Bongbong' Marcos Jr., and the Duterte political dynasty to lead to a significant erosion of his power base during the midterm elections in May 2025," Alex Holmes, the think tank's regional director for Asia, said in a Feb. 6 report obtained by Manila Bulletin.
Holmes pointed out that "political groupings are many and fluid in the Philippines, and have a large influence on the outcome of elections."
"It appears for now that Mr. Marcos has been successful at coalescing these groups in his favor, with the help of the Lower House Speaker (and the President's cousin), Martin Romualdez," he noted.
Given the President's broad alliance with the country's biggest political parties for the 2025 elections, Holmes believes that "Marcos-aligned candidates will enjoy the strong advantage of having powerful party machinery behind them."
In the Senate, for instance, EIU estimates the Marcos Jr. administration's allies could secure up to three-fourths of the 12 seats up for grabs in May, citing recent Pulse Asia Research Inc. poll results.
In the House of Representatives, meanwhile, nearly two-thirds of the current crop of legislators belong to the Marcos-led coalition.
Also, Holmes noted that the President and his administration have "access to financial resources and the machinery of power, while his opponents have seen their popularity slip."
But for the EIU, "there are risks that the feud could taint Mr. Marcos's popularity or cause schisms among his backers, particularly if the Vice President, Sara Duterte, is impeached by the Senate," Holmes said, adding that "economic discontent is another risk."
After President Marcos' allies in the Lower House impeached Duterte -- who was his running mate in the 2022 presidential elections under a "unity" platform, Holmes said the current administration may be impacted in two ways.
"First, it could affect his popularity among the general public, which could translate into fewer votes for candidates aligned with the President," he said.
"Second, Mr. Marcos could lose support among powerful political groupings. These are often centered on a combination of family dynasties, geography and business interests, and have heavy sway in the alignment of politicians and how people vote," Holmes added.
For Holmes, the Marcos Jr. administration may find comfort in recent surveys showing the Vice President's approval ratings sliding faster than the President's -- "overall, survey data back the idea that, in the eyes of the public, the Dutertes are coming off worse."
However, as the possible removal of the Vice President from her office progressed, Holmes cautioned: "There is a risk that the impeachment could turn Sara Duterte from agitator to victim in the public's perception and win her more votes," especially in the southern Mindanao island -- the Dutertes' bailiwick, where recent surveys showed the President's unpopularity surging.
"It is notable that Mr. Marcos himself has dismissed impeachment as 'a waste of time.' He may judge that he can appear above it all by publicly disassociating himself and having his allies act instead. However, that may prove to be a dangerous gamble," Holmes warned.
It does not help the President that the Iglesia Ni Cristo, the homegrown religious sect whose members vote as a bloc, has opposed the Vice President's impeachment, he added.
But for most Filipinos, whose living conditions are more important than any political maneuverings, Holmes said lingering economic resentment may present challenges to the President's hold on power.
"Inflation has come down markedly in the Philippines, from a peak of eight percent in late 2022 to 2.9 percent in January 2025. However, public perceptions of inflation are often governed heavily by absolute price levels. The consumer price index is over 10-percent higher than when Mr. Marcos took office, and 15-percent higher for food items," he pointed out.
Holmes recalled that the President this week sought a food security emergency to arrest high food prices, especially of rice -- a Filipino staple.
"The pre-election move was probably aimed at addressing cost-of-living concerns. With ordinary Filipinos still feeling the pinch, candidates associated with the President may suffer at the ballot box. That would mirror an anti-incumbency trend that has played out around the world in the past couple of years," according to Holmes.
