View from Manila: War games in the Philippines as war goes awry in the Gulf

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MANILA, Philippines — Even as the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the larger Middle East vacillates between threats that “a whole civilization will die tonight” and negotiations that are steady and hopeful, some 10,000 soldiers from the United States military will be training in the Philippines for the weeks-long yearly Balikatan wargames.

Despite other things happening elsewhere in the world, “Balikatan is proof that the US’ ironclad commitment to the Philippines remains unwavering,” said Lieutenant General Christian Wortman, commanding general of the First Marine Expeditionary Force.

For three weeks from April 20 until the second week of May, some 17,000 soldiers and combat troops from seven countries will be training all across the archipelago in joint wargames between the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and the US military.

The year’s joint exercises are the “biggest” and most complex yet.

For the first time, too, Balikatan will include troops from the Japan Self-Defense Forces — a long-awaited development some two years after Manila and Tokyo signed the Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA). It’ll be the first time for Japanese soldiers to set foot on Philippine soil since World War II, when Japan colonized the Philippine islands.

There are several other noteworthy details of this year’s drills.

There are multilateral maritime events and maritime strike drills, among others under the Northern Luzon Command (NOLCOM) or the AFP unified command responsible for Bajo de Masinloc (Scarborough Shoal) in the West Philippine Sea and the waters between Luzon and Taiwan up north — flashpoints for tensions in the region.

The bulk of drills that’ll be available for media to cover, in fact, are happening up north, again under NOLCOM.

That’s not to say that the south isn’t getting any action.

Before Balikatan kicked off, Philippine and American soldiers “rehearsed equipment and supply offload from maritime prepositioning force shipping” at the Port of Cagayan de Oro that was eventually brought to Luzon.

That a flurry of military training activities are set to take place on Philippine soil is nothing new.

But the context of which they’re happening in 2026 adds a new dimension to each maritime activity, logistical drills, and test of interoperability: the US trying to assure its partners in the Indo-Pacific that its pivot to the region is still on track, even as their war in the Middle East seems to be going awry.

The region’s sense of US power

“We think the participation reflects a growing international consensus of a free, open, and stable Indo-Pacific,” said Wortman in a press conference on April 20, when asked about the inclusion of Australia, Japan, New Zealand, Canada, and France as participating forces.

All five nations have visiting forces deals with the Philippines and are also close partners of the US. None of those countries are from Southeast Asia or Asia, although several Asian countries are part of Balikatan as observers.

Military officials have taken great pains to distance the activities in the Philippines from the war against Iran, or in any operations in the Gulf — even if they’re questions about whether military activities there have affected deployments here.

France scaled down its deployment since the US and Israel launched the war on Iran in late February. From the deployment of the French Mission Jeanne D’Arc 2026, Paris will instead be sending a small group of 15 to 20 personnel for training both in Palawan and the Philippine capital.

Major General Francisco Lorenzo Jr., Philippine exercise director for Balikatan 2026, said the drills are meant to “showcase our alliance with the US, strengthening our ability and capability, and pushing for the rules-based international order and to keep the Indo-Pacific open and free.”

It’s interesting to note that only Lorenzo put emphasis on the “rules-based international order” during the hour-long press conference and even during the opening ceremony.

After all, how can American officials speak about international order when their own president’s actions appear to undermine or threaten that?

A ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute survey of thought leaders in the region seems to indicate a possible shift in views in the Philippines toward the US.

In its yearly survey, which concluded just weeks before the war on Iran, 54.7% of respondents said they “welcomed” Washington’s regional political and strategic influence, down from the 66% in 2025. “Worry” over the US’ regional political and strategic influence went up — to 45.3% in 2026 from just 34% in 2025.

The 2026 numbers put us just a little closer to the rest of Southeast Asia. Some 43.2% of respondents from across the bloc said they welcomed US hegemony, while 56.8% said they were worried.

It’s still a considerable gap between the Philippines and the region, admittedly, but previous surveys (by a different think tank) would indicate that Filipinos trusted the US more than they did themselves.

But perhaps the most telling number from the survey would be the 51.9% of those surveyed from across the region who said “US leadership under President [Donald] Trump” was their top geopolitical concern for the region. It trumps global scam operations and even aggressive behavior in the South China Sea (which was the top concern in 2025). Dynamics and possibilities in the South China Sea, and a dream of a Free and Open Indo-Pacific, after all, was once rooted on a stable and predictable US.

A war’s consequences

There is much to be worried about over the US and Israel’s war on Iran — the death toll across the region that’s hit the thousands, including civilians, is devastating. There’s the ruin of critical infrastructure in the region, and the disruption of life in parts of the region.

Closer to home is the reminder of just how vulnerable the Philippines, an archipelagic nation, is to fluctuations in the global oil market. President Ferdinand Marcos has recently announced dramatic rollbacks in the cost of diesel and gas, but not before diesel rose to practically triple its pre-Iran war prices. It was an already vulnerable transportation sector that absorbed the brunt of the oil price surge.

In Manila, military officials are careful when talking about the kind of energy requirements a massive military exercise would need. Partner nations are bringing their own supplies. The US military’s spokesperson for Balikatan, Colonel Robert Bunn, said the US purchased fuel for Balikatan between three to four months ago.

“But the United States, whether it be through energy use or when we put our vehicles on the roads during Balikatan, are always very sensitive to the local populace and our effect on the nation of the Philippines. We respect that to a high degree and it’s very important to our alliance,” he added.

The Philippine military also has its own pre-determined supply for Balikatan, although elsewhere the AFP has tightened its belt too — meetings and conferences are almost all online, save for when it’s a sensitive matter, according to sources.

So even as the Philippines and US up the intensity and intricacy of their defense ties and interoperability exercises, Manila should also look, in earnest and with intentionality, at partnerships beyond its only treaty ally.

Balikatan 2026 could be the start of a defense network that goes beyond a superpower some have warned is burning too bright and to quick for its own good. – Rappler.com

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