Vietnam GDP growth slowed in first quarter ahead of Trump’s tariffs

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Exports and foreign investment in manufacturing are key drivers of Vietnam's economy, but that model may come under pressure after President Donald Trump announced a 46% tariff on Vietnam's exports to the US

HANOI, Vietnam – Vietnam’s economic growth slowed in the first quarter of the year, data showed on Sunday, April 6, ahead of challenges the export-reliant economy will face in coming months from hefty US trade tariffs.

The Southeast Asian country’s gross domestic product rose 6.93% in the first three months from the same period last year, slowing from 7.55% in the quarter ending in December, the National Statistics Office said in a report.

Exports and foreign investment in manufacturing are key drivers of Vietnam’s economy, but that model may come under pressure after President Donald Trump announced a 46% tariff on Vietnam’s exports to the US.

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh said Trump’s tariffs did not change the government’s target of at least 8% growth this year.

To hit the target, growth for the remaining quarters will need to rise by between 8.2% and 8.4%, but if Trump’s tariff on Vietnamese goods causes a 10% drop in the country’s shipments to the US, that could cut GDP growth by 0.84 percentage points, the statistics office estimated.

Hardest hit would be the garment, footwear, electronics and smartphone sectors, it said.

“Export to the US is one of Vietnam’s main drivers, the tariff may lower foreign investments into Vietnam, especially from American, South Korean and Chinese partners, which may lead to a decrease in jobs and income,” said Nguyen Thi Mai Hanh, a senior official at the statistics office.

The US remained Vietnam’s largest importer in the first quarter, and Vietnam’s trade surplus with the US rose 22.1% from a year earlier to $27.3 billion.

‘Significantly damage growth model’

Industrial production increased 7.8% in the first quarter year-on-year, slowing from 11.5% in the December quarter. The agency warned that industrial production in the second quarter may face challenges due to the tariffs and global uncertainty.

Exports rose an annual 10.6% in the March quarter, accelerating from 7.9% in the final quarter of 2024.

In a note published on Thursday, research firm BMI said the U.S. tariff rate on Vietnam was harsher than expected, and could see GDP growth miss its forecast for this year of 7.4% by up to 3 percentage points.

“This will significantly damage Vietnam’s current (foreign direct investment)/export-based growth model, which heavily relies on exports to the US,” BMI said.

Economic activity in Vietnam usually slows in the first quarter of the year because of disruption from week-long celebrations for the Lunar New Year.

Investment consultants have said growth may have been impacted this year as companies delayed investment decisions ahead of the tariff announcement.

A survey of US manufacturers in Vietnam in February showed that most expected layoffs and disruption to their local operations in the event of tariffs.

Vietnam’s consumer prices rose 3.13% in March from a year earlier, the statistics office said. – Rappler.com