‘Up to 11 cyclones may enter Philippines from February to July’

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January 22, 2026 | 12:00am

MANILA, Philippines —  Four to 11 tropical cyclones are likely to develop or enter the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) between February and July this year, according to the climate outlook presented during the 192nd Climate Forum held yesterday.

Presented by PAGASA deputy administrator for research and development Joseph Basconcillo, the outlook is based on prevailing global and regional climate conditions covering the February to July.

The forum noted that weak La Niña conditions are currently present in the tropical Pacific, with climate models indicating a 75-percent probability of a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions from January until March.

Under the outlook, tropical cyclone activity is expected to remain low from January to April, with zero to one cyclone forecast per month.

Activity is projected to increase slightly in May and June, with one to two tropical cyclones expected monthly.

Overall, four to 11 tropical cyclones are forecast to affect or enter the PAR during the February to July period.

Meanwhile, from February to May, below-normal to way below-normal rainfall is expected over the western parts of Northern and Central Luzon.

From March to April, northern and Central Luzon are expected to experience the most pronounced dry conditions, marked by a higher number of “dry days,” or days with less than one millimeter of rainfall.