United Nation sees faster growth for Philippine in 2026, 2027

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January 10, 2026 | 12:00am

MANILA, Philippines — The Philippines is expected to post higher growth this year and the next after likely falling short of its 2025 growth target, according to the United Nations.

The UN’s World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026 report showed that it estimates 2025 Philippine economic growth at five percent, below the government’s 5.5 to 6.5 percent growth target.

“In the Philippines, low inflation, robust labor market conditions and steady remittance inflows have buoyed consumer spending, while government spending and investment have further supported growth,” the UN said. 

While last year’s gross domestic product growth may have missed the government’s target, the report showed that the UN is forecasting a faster growth of 5.7 percent for the Philippines for 2026. This is within the government’s revised growth goal of five to six percent for this year.

For 2027, the UN expects the Philippines to expand at an even faster rate of 6.1 percent, also within the government’s revised  5.5 to 6.5 percent growth target for next year. 

Earlier, Department of Economy, Planning and Development Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said the economy likely grew by 4.8 to five percent last year amid challenges including uncertainties stemming from the United States’   protectionist policies and flood control issues.

In the third quarter of 2025, Philippine economic growth slowed to a four-year low of four percent as the flood control controversy prompted the government to implement stricter validation measures and led to a drop in public construction. The controversy also weighed on consumer and investor sentiment. 

From January to September, average economic growth stood at five percent.

The full-year 2025 economic performance data will be released on Jan. 29.

In terms of inflation, the UN expects the rate of increase in Philippine consumer prices to pick up to 2.3 percent this year and to 2.8 percent next year, after easing to a nine-year low of 1.7 percent last year.

The UN said risks to the outlook are largely tilted to the downside as it flagged continued uncertainty from unpredictable trade policy changes that could impact growth in East Asia, including the Philippines.

While several countries have ongoing tariff talks with the US, the UN said there is a risk that the tariffs could be extended to currently exempt sectors, particularly semiconductors.

“The uneven US tariff structure could reshape export competitiveness across East Asian economies, but the scope and pace of supply chain adjustments remain uncertain amid ongoing policy shifts, potentially delaying investment decisions,” the UN said.

It said a potential slowdown in major economies including China, the European Union and the US amid geopolitical tensions, could also weigh on the region’s merchandise trade, investment and tourism.

“More frequent extreme weather events pose increasing threats to agricultural production, infrastructure and livelihoods across the region, potentially reigniting food price inflation and amplifying fiscal pressures,” the UN said.

To mitigate ongoing global trade policy uncertainty, it said East Asian economies are pushing for deeper regional integration.

“These efforts aim to lower or eliminate tariffs, harmonize regulations and streamline customs procedures,” the UN said.