UNDP: Mideast conflict threatens Philippines gains in human development

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June 12, 2026 | 12:00am

MANILA, Philippines — The Middle East crisis threatens to reverse the Philippines’ hard-won human development gains, making it necessary to put in place measures to mitigate the impact, according to the United Nations Development Program (UNDP).

In a policy brief, the UNDP said  “the immediate impact of the crisis could set back the Philippines’ human development progress by the equivalent of 0.01 to 0.05 years, with losses compounding the longer the disruption persists.”

In 2023, the Philippines’ Human Development Index (HDI) value reached 0.720. This marked a recovery from the decline to 0.690 in 2021 from 0.699 in 2020 due to the COVID pandemic.

UNDP said the setback is expected to be reflected in all three HDI dimensions such as income, health and education outcomes.

The impact will hit income first as high inflation and slower growth erode household income, while the effects on health and education are expected to be more gradual.

UNDP said the Philippines is likely to be hit harder by the shocks than other economies in Asia-Pacific given the country’s reliance on the Middle East for crude oil.

In addition, the Middle East is a source of the country’s overseas remittances.

Based on the initial effects of the Middle East conflict, UNDP said that more than 35,000 Filipinos could fall below the lower-middle income poverty line of $4.20 a day.

It said that more Filipinos could be pushed into poverty if the conflict persists.

“The most exposed groups are informal workers, public-transport drivers, smallholder farmers, remittance-dependent households, women in low-paid service and care work and young people entering a softening labor market,” UNDP said.

To prevent the temporary shock from becoming a permanent human development setback, the UNDP recommends four priority actions.

Among the recommendations is to maintain price stability for fuel and food through supply-side measures instead of broad price controls.

To reduce exposure to future shocks, UNDP cited the need to diversify energy sources and to accelerate investments in renewable energy.

It also called for the expansion of the government’s targeted social assistance.

In addition, UNDP pushed for government support to protect jobs in agriculture and other sectors.

“Beyond agriculture, support should be directed to the micro and small enterprises and informal workers most exposed to higher fuel, transport and input costs, through existing financing and livelihood programs that can be scaled rather than designed anew,” UNDP said.

It also pushed for support for returning overseas workers through social protection, skills training and loans for starting a business.