Tropical Depression Ramil speeds up east of Sorsogon

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As of 10 pm on Friday, October 17, Tropical Depression Ramil is located 445 kilometers east of Juban, Sorsogon

MANILA, Philippines – Tropical Depression Ramil accelerated late Friday night, October 17, moving west over the Philippine Sea at 30 kilometers per hour from 15 km/h early evening.

The tropical depression was last spotted 445 kilometers east of Juban, Sorsogon, at 10 pm on Friday.

It continues to have maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h and gustiness of up to 70 km/h, but may still strengthen into a tropical storm by Saturday morning, October 18.

“Further intensification into a severe tropical storm prior to landfall is not ruled out,” the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said.

Ramil’s latest forecast track shows it might make landfall in Catanduanes on Saturday afternoon or evening, then pass close to or over mainland Bicol.

From Bicol, it could head to Aurora or Quezon, where it could make landfall again on Sunday morning, October 19. Then it would cross Northern Luzon or Central Luzon, and possibly emerge over the West Philippine Sea by Sunday afternoon or evening.

But PAGASA reiterated that Ramil’s track can still shift further southward or downward, in which case its landfall site would change.

The following areas are likely to get the most rainfall from Ramil in the next three days:

Friday evening, October 17, to Saturday evening, October 18

• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 millimeters): Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar

Saturday evening, October 18, to Sunday evening, October 19

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Isabela, Aurora, Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Cagayan, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Rizal, Laguna, Marinduque, Romblon, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate, Eastern Samar, Northern Samar, Samar

Sunday evening, October 19, to Monday evening, October 20

• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Apayao, Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Batanes, Cagayan, Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Zambales

Affected areas must watch out for floods and landslides.

Aside from moderate to intense rain, Ramil will also bring strong winds. Signal No. 1 is in effect in these areas as of 11 pm on Friday:

• Isabela
• Quirino
• Nueva Vizcaya
• southern part of Kalinga (Rizal, Tabuk City, Tanudan, Lubuagan, Tinglayan)
• Mountain Province
• Ifugao
• Benguet
• southern part of Ilocos Sur (Cervantes, Alilem, Sugpon, Suyo, Tagudin)
• La Union
• Pangasinan
• Aurora
• Nueva Ecija
• eastern part of Bulacan (Doña Remedios Trinidad, Norzagaray, San Miguel, San Ildefonso, San Rafael, Angat)
• eastern part of Tarlac (Camiling, San Clemente, Santa Ignacia, Paniqui, Moncada, San Manuel, Anao, Ramos, Pura, Victoria, Tarlac City, La Paz, Concepcion, Gerona)
• eastern part of Pampanga (Magalang, Arayat, Candaba)
• northern and eastern parts of Quezon (Tagkawayan, Perez, Alabat, Quezon, Atimonan, Padre Burgos, Unisan, Gumaca, Plaridel, Agdangan, Pagbilao, Mauban, Calauag, Guinayangan, Lopez, Pitogo, Macalelon, General Luna, Catanauan, San Narciso, Buenavista, San Francisco, San Andres, Mulanay, General Nakar, Infanta, Real, Sampaloc) including Polillo Islands
• Camarines Norte
• Camarines Sur
• Catanduanes
• Albay
• Sorsogon
• Burias Island
• Ticao Island
• Northern Samar
• northern part of Eastern Samar (San Policarpo, Arteche, Oras, Dolores, Maslog, Jipapad, Taft, Can-avid)
• northern part of Samar (Matuguinao, San Jose de Buan, Calbayog City, Gandara, Santa Margarita, Pagsanghan, San Jorge)

For now, Signal No. 2 is likely the highest tropical cyclone wind signal to be raised. But if Ramil becomes a severe tropical storm, Signal No. 3 would be the worst-case scenario.

Ramil’s trough and outer rainbands, as well as the easterlies, are also bringing strong to gale-force gusts to areas not under a wind signal in Eastern Samar on Saturday.

PAGASA added that there is a minimal to moderate risk of storm surges with peak heights of 1 to 2 meters in Isabela, Aurora, Quezon including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, and Samar within 48 hours. Check the specific cities and municipalities here.

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As Ramil approaches, more seaboards are becoming risky for small vessels on Saturday.

Up to rough seas (small vessels should not venture out to sea)

• Seaboards of Isabela, northern portion of Aurora, and Camarines Norte; northern seaboard of Camarines Sur; northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes – waves up to 3.5 meters high
• Seaboards of Batanes and rest of Aurora; eastern seaboards of mainland Cagayan, Babuyan
  Islands, and northern part of mainland Quezon; northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands – waves up to 3 meters high

Up to moderate seas (small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible)

• Seaboards of Ilocos Norte and Ilocos Sur; remaining seaboards of mainland Cagayan and Babuyan Islands; eastern seaboards of Albay, Sorsogon, and Eastern Samar; northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar – waves up to 2.5 meters high
• Seaboard of La Union; western seaboard of Pangasinan; eastern seaboards of Dinagat Islands, Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands, Surigao del Sur, and rest of mainland Quezon; southern seaboard of Sorsogon – waves up to 2 meters high

Ramil could exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Monday morning, October 20.

It is the country’s 18th tropical cyclone for 2025, and the third for October, after Typhoon Paolo (Matmo) and Tropical Storm Quedan (Nakri). PAGASA previously said there may be two to four tropical cyclones during the month.

The Philippines is transitioning to the northeast monsoon or amihan season after the recent termination of the southwest monsoon or habagat season.

La Niña is also underway in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which means the country may have above-normal rainfall in the coming months. – Rappler.com