1 month ago
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The Department of Energy’s (DOE) confidence in a "stable" power supply this summer sounds reassuring, but is this built on hard facts and long-term fixes—or are we just rolling the dice on luck and good weather until the next energy crisis slams us? Hmm, let’s be honest—I know what you did last summer.
Sounds great on paper—but let’s see if reality agrees when summer months roll around, or if some Filipino consumers would still be left in the dark—literally and figuratively.
The Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM) operator kicked things off with a rosy forecast of minimal to zero yellow and red alerts this summer, and the DOE wasted no time backing it up; and while system operator National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) is still keeping its updated projections under wraps, the question is: are we standing on solid ground or just clinging to wishful thinking disguised as early optimism?
Secretary Popo Lotilla certainly paints a brighter power outlook for summer, crediting grid reinforcements as well as additional capacities coming on stream and La Niña’s cooler relief—but even he admits the grid is only as strong as its weakest link. And in an archipelago with vulnerabilities scattered like dominoes, one wrong move could still send the system into a problematic situation.
"Barring unforeseen events or interruptions, overall, we are in a much better situation this year than we were back in 2024 because we have several energy projects that have come online, not only for the generation side but also for the transmission side as well. In addition, this year is also a La Niña year despite elections. However, we are only as strong as our weakest link, and our weak links are everywhere, given we are an archipelago, and each of our islands has a different energy situation," he said.
So there it is—"unforeseen events"; we must do some sleuthing on that lurking uncharted variable, as the fine print in every fearless energy forecast may prove that "stability" isn’t a guarantee, just a hope hanging by a thread.
And let’s not kid ourselves—could these so-called "unforeseen events" again include a fresh round of "collusion allegations" in the spot market? Because after 25 years of power industry restructuring, regulators still seem better at barking than biting when it comes to exposing and punishing anti-competitive maneuvers "played" in the WESM. Until now, no one’s really cracking the whip—that’s why collusion allegations still appear like a "recurring ritual" during summer months; and that scenario thrives in the comfort of weak regulatory enforcement and empty threats.
Or will this "unforeseen event" be yet another round of flawed forecasting from industry players, including the DOE—because year after year, their promises of stability crumble under the weight of reality, as Luzon grid in particular, repeatedly flips from "secure" to "struggling" with yellow and red alerts.
A yellow alert is like a caution flag for falling reserves in the power system—and it’s the grid’s way of saying: more plant forced outages could throw us into extreme tight supply conditions that could result in electricity rate spikes. On the other hand, a red alert takes the higher level of alarm—where power reserve is already gasping for air, and any single plant failure could plunge some areas into rolling blackouts or service interruptions.
Election, property market crash in the equation
Beyond new power capacities and La Niña’s cooling touch, another wildcard this summer is the mid-term elections—a season when electricity demand surges, not just due to higher use of air-conditioning and blaring sound systems in campaign sorties, but even from the relentless printing of propaganda materials.
But let’s not be naïve—some "intentional" power interruptions in select areas could tell a very different story, one scripted not by grid instability or industry miscalculations, but by politicians pulling the strings to win an election rather than an unfortunate incident.
On the flip side, the property market is in a nosedive, thanks to the abrupt exit of offshore gaming operators and weaker-than-expected economic performance—leaving condo developers grasping for buyers and brokers facing empty sales sheets. The silver lining? The widely perceived crash in the real estate sector means lower electricity demand, as vacant units and struggling businesses quietly unplug from the grid.
These two forces pull in opposite directions—one driving demand up, the other dragging it down—yet until the dust settles, their actual impact on the country’s power supply this summer remains anyone’s guess.
And here lies another firestorm of doubt: if the DOE is confident that additional capacities have been putting power supply in more "stable" condition, is its energy planning being recalibrated properly— especially with the series of green energy auctions (GEAs) being lined up?
Because if energy planning isn’t fully aligned with realistic supply-demand situation, consumers might end up footing the bill for stranded capacities through FIT-All charges on our electric bills.
The even bigger question is—how will all these new capacities seamlessly integrate into a grid managed by NGCP, whose concession deal expires in just nine years, while the regulatory framework for cost recovery is set to shift post-project completion? With billions worth of investments at stake and a history of regulatory blind spots, I’d like to know exactly how the DOE and the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) are mapping things out before we’re left paying for another tangled mess in our power system.
