Stocks brace for turbulence amid tensions in Middle East

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March 2, 2026 | 12:00am

MANILA, Philippines — After a strong showing last week, the local stock market braces for potential turbulence in the coming days following major developments in the Middle East over the weekend.

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) went on a seven-day winning streak last week before finally taking a breather on Friday, closing at 6,611.24. Week-on-week, the PSEi surged by 2.26 percent.

Prior to Friday’s profit taking that resulted in a healthy correction, the PSEi managed to soar to a fresh one-year high last Thursday, zooming to 6,625.46.

Over the weekend, however, the US and Israel started striking targets in Iran, with Iran retaliating with its own attack at Israel and US bases.

China Bank Capital Corp. managing director Juan Paolo Colet said this week would see heightened volatility driven by events in the Middle East.

“Unless we see an immediate resolution to the conflict, I expect risk-off sentiment to push our stock market lower. However, gold miners could be seen as a hedge against geopolitical risk, so their prices might be generally resilient to a selloff,” he said.

“In light of the Middle East attacks, investors are likely to rotate to safe haven assets or issues closely tied to gold,” AP Securities Inc. equity research analyst Shawn Ray Atienza said separately.

For Luis Limlingan of Regina Capital, markets may follow the price action of the rest of the region.

“However, many developments may happen between now and tomorrow to sway sentiment,” he said.

First Metro Investment Corp. head of research Cristina Ulang expects the PSEi to likely move sideways between 6,500 and 6,600 as market stays cautious on geopolitical tension in the Middle East and Trump’s 15 percent tariff.

Unicapital Securities head of research Wendy Estacio-Cruz, for her part, sees sentiment remaining cautiously optimistic in the near term, supported by easing inflation expectations and a more accommodative policy outlook.

Aside from corporate earnings, she said investors are looking ahead to the release of the manufacturing PMI on March 2 and the February inflation on March 5.

“Strategic positioning remains the priority as the market navigates in and around this critical earnings season,” 2TradeAsia.com, the online arm of F. Yap Securities Inc., said.

“While volatility may surface around the inflation print, the underlying trend suggests a ‘buy on dips’ environment, although acknowledge room for consolidation as the index tests psychological barriers,” the online brokerage said.

For this week, immediate support is seen at 6,300, while resistance is at 6,700.