Stable grid and stable growth

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If we want more stable and sustained growth, we should have less variable renewable energy (RE) like solar and wind. Conversely, if we want anemic and unstable growth, we should keep expanding those variable RE.

I computed the average GDP growth from 2012 to 2025 of selected countries based on their RE generation (solar, wind, biomass, geothermal) to total power generation or RE/T ratio.

Countries with low RE/T ratio between 12 to 18 percent in 2023-2024, their average GDP growth are as follows:  India, 6.3 percent;  Vietnam, 6.3 percent; China, 6.1 percent; Philippines, 5.2 percent; Indonesia, 4.3 percent. Good.

Indonesia and Philippines have high geothermal use that is why they belong to the above group. The growth of neighbors with RE/T ratio below 10 percent, Malaysia has 4.4 percent, Singapore has 3.6 percent. Also good.

Countries with high RE/T ratio of 42-50 percent, their average anemic growth are as follows: Germany, 0.9 percent; UK, 1.6 percent; Spain, also 1.6 percent. Those with RE/T ratio of 29 percent, their growth are: Brazil, 1.2 percent; Australia, 2.4 percent. Bad, we should not follow them.

There are many factors for countries’ high or low growth and the RE/T ratio is only one of them but it is among the important factors.

Another weak link to attain stable high growth is geographical isolation of many islands. Off-grid islands and provinces run gensets that use diesel and bunker fuel to produce electricity – more expensive fuel, and less stable supply. Results are less economic activities on those off-grid islands plus high cost of subsidy via universal charge for missionary electrification (UC-ME), additional monthly cost  for consumers of on-grid islands from Luzon to Mindanao.

I saw these recent reports in The STAR written by Brix Lelis: “Over P18 billion NGCP projects up for completion in 2026” (Feb. 13), “NGCP plans P24 billion submarine grid link for Mindoro” (March 18), “Thin reserves put power grids at risk” (March 26).

These are good development except thin power reserves. The National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP) proposed 500 kiloVolt (kV) Batangas-Mindoro Interconnection and Backbone Project (BMIBP) submarine cable is needed moons ago, good that it will be completed soon. Which will help expand businesses in Oriental and Occidental Mindoro while reducing the UC-ME in the monthly electricity bill of on-grid consumers nationwide.

I was born and grew up until high school in Negros Occidental. There is power deficit there until today, no coal plant and to prevent daily Earth Hours, the island imports coal power from neighbors Cebu and Iloilo. NGCP new projects like the P1.9-billion Amlan-Dumaguete 138-kV line in Negros Oriental, the P4.2-billion Nabas-Caticlan-Boracay 138-kV line in Aklan, the P1-billion Visayas Substation Reliability Project Stage 2, these are good.

Back to RE/T ratio. Latest data from the Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines (IEMOP) about our energy mix show that for January-March 2026, the share of solar plus wind has reached 7.4 percent of total generation, from only 3.8 percent same months of 2021 and 4.9 percent in 2024.

The share of coal is 56.8 percent of total generation in 2026, from 52 percent in 2021 and 59.3 percent in 2024. The share of conventional RE, hydro plus geothermal, is 17.5 percent, lower than 18.3 percent in 2021 and 17 percent in 2024. Battery and pumped storage remains small, only one percent.

Variable and intermittent RE will need more batteries and fast-start gas-oil plants to quickly compensate for supply deficit when there is sudden thick cloud cover, or sudden low wind speed. The cost of ancillary services (AS) in the transmission charge in our monthly electricity bill will keep rising as more AS and standby power plants are contracted to provide exclusive power augmentation to the grid.

It is good that big solar plants like Terra Solar in Bulacan-Nueva Ecija have built-in batteries, send stable solar power to the grid and thus, the need for more AS can be controlled and minimized.

I have been a non-fan of solar-wind for many years. But recently I softened my opposition to some solar based on stories of many friends who have rooftop solar, or working in hydropower companies with floating solar in the water reservoir. They look logical.

But I do not support the pricing of rooftop solar net-metering. Pricing should not be based on average generation charge of distribution utilities (DUs) but on WESM price, which is lower than the former.

DUs contract many power supply agreements from many generation companies (gencos), have redundancy of power supply to have adequate reserves in case some gencos suddenly experience technical and unscheduled plant breakdown. This redundancy in power supply means higher generation cost.

Rooftop and net-metering solar should not be entitled to this higher overall generation charge, which means consumers who cannot afford rooftop solar pay extra. Net metering solar should be paid only at average WESM price.

Offshore wind (OSW), my opposition to it remains. The sea should be open for fishing, navigation, and offshore oil-gas explorations. We need more indigenous oil-gas. Plus the transmission cost of OSW is wildly high and impractical. Solar can be forgivable but OSW is not.

To summarize, we need stable grid, stable power supply, to have stable and sustained high growth. We should have more fossil-fuel energy source, oil-gas-coal. Coal in particular  constitutes only 40 percent of total installed capacity in the country but contributes 57 percent of total power generation in 2026.  The dirtiest energy for lighting is candles, not coal.

Let us junk climate alarmism. Planet Earth has natural, cyclical warming-cooling climate change since it was born 4.6 billion years ago.