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3 weeks ago
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MALAYBALAY CITY (MindaNews / 18 Feb) — Is the world getting smaller for Taiwan (nee Formosa), the island south of Fujian Province that China considers a renegade territory, the annexation of which, by force, if necessary, has long been its goal? The question bears watching in light of the change of guard in Washington and an escalation in Beijing’s military actions apparently meant to unnerve Taiwan and its backers.
The fate of the self-ruled island mainly relies on how the United States defines its geopolitical policy in the Asia-Pacific region – which appears hazy in the early stage of the second Trump administration – and how its allies respond to it. For one, President Trump has criticized Taiwan for its dominance in making semiconductors. But on February 13, the US Department of State removed a statement on its website that said it does not support Taiwan’s independence.
Ever since, it’s American military support for Taiwan that has prevented Beijing from undertaking an all-out invasion. US military presence not only in the South China Sea but also in South Korea, Japan and the Philippines has been the biggest deterrence against Beijing’s plan to invade the island.
US and allied warships continue to cross the Taiwan Strait to maintain its status as an international waterway, as well as conduct freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea, where Beijing has built fortifications on reclaimed areas.
Meanwhile, Japan, which is also having a territorial dispute with China over Senkaku Islands, has been building up defenses in Yonaguni, its westernmost island 2,025 kilometers from Tokyo but only 110 kilometers from Taiwan. In August last year, the 12th Marine Littoral Regiment deployed an AN/TPS-80 Ground/Air Task Oriented Radar (TPS-80) system as part of the U.S. Marine Corps-Japan Self-Defense Force bilateral exercise Resolute Dragon 24.
This is in addition to Japan’s radar site and an electronic warfare unit on Yonaguni, as well as plans to station surface-to-surface missiles on the island and other islands in the southwest region, according to the article on the website of the US Naval Institute.
“The TPS-80 is a multi-mission system designed to provide advanced air surveillance, ground surveillance, and weapon control capabilities from a single, mobile platform,” the article added.
From February 17 to March 7 this year, the III Marine Expeditionary Force and the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force will drill in Okinawa and Kyushu, in a military exercise called Iron Fist 25 that focuses on amphibious operations. What is significant is that the exercise used to be held in California until 2023, but shifted to Japan’s southwest islands due to China’s claims on Senkaku Islands and drills simulating a blockade of Taiwan.
In the Philippines, the Marcos administration’s revitalization of defense ties with the US has enabled the latter to strengthen its military presence across the country, particularly through the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) that was put in the doldrums during the Duterte era, which saw the Philippines pandering towards China.
There are currently nine EDCA sites in the country: Basa Air Base in Pampanga, Fort Magsaysay in Nueva Ecija, Lumbia Air Base in Cagayan de Oro City, Antonio Bautista Air Base in Palawan, Mactan-Benito Ebuen Air Base in Cebu, Naval Base Camilo Osias in Sta. Ana in Cagayan, Lal-lo Airport also in Cagayan, Camp Melchor Dela Cruz in Gamu in Isabela, and Balabac Island in Palawan.
President Marcos said there are no plans to establish more EDCA bases.
Regardless, recent moves by Manila to beef up defenses in Mavulis, the country’s northernmost island which is only 142 kilometers from Taiwan, and which Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro described as the “spearhead of the Philippines,” could create another irritant for China. The island is part of Batanes, which falls within Beijing’s self-designated ten-dash line.
More importantly, American presence in Batanes would create a chokepoint for the Chinese military along the Bashi Channel and enable US and its allies to respond “in a timely manner” in case of a Taiwan contingency. No wonder that China protested as a provocative act the holding of Balikatan drills from April to May last year along the strategic waterway, which along with Miyako Strait off Japan’s western islands, serves as entryway for the Chinese Navy into the Pacific Ocean. Aside from the US, Australian and French forces also joined the exercise and Japan and European countries sent observers.
Chen Wen-Jia, who works with the Institute for National Policy Research, a private think tank in Taiwan, emphasized the strategic role of the Philippines in its conflict with China when he suggested that Taiwan hide its military assets here and only deploy them in the event of a shooting war.
China has also criticized the deployment last year of a US ground-launched missile system to Northern Luzon, which has been moved to an undisclosed location. The system can launch Tomahawk missiles that have an estimated range of more than 1,600 kilometers, which means these are capable of hitting targets in China.
Lucio Pito III, a foreign policy and security analyst at Asia Pacific Pathways to Progress, said in a TV talk show that the Balikatan exercises last year in Batanes and the deployment of the missile system were “an expression of concern” about developments near Taiwan, alluding to the drills conducted by the People’s Liberation Army.
In the same talk show, Sherwin Ona, Political Science professor at De La Salle University, said there has been a lot of forward deployment of US forces, especially US Marines, and construction of forward operating bases within the Batanes area due to its proximity to Taiwan and an emerging Taiwan contingency. He particularly cited the Marine Littoral Regiment and its island-hopping strategy, building infrastructure both for defense and offense.
Ona warned that a full-blown war would mean economic repercussions for the country. He said that, for one, it will displace around 200,000 overseas Filipino workers in Taiwan.
Pito said that if an armed conflict erupted between China and the US in the event of a forcible takeover of Taiwan, it would mean the Philippines will be facing two fronts – in the west and north. He added it would bring about a humanitarian problem for the Philippines, the likely destination of refugees owing to its proximity.
He said he believes an invasion would make countries rethink their One-China policy even if their interpretation of such a stand may hew close to what Beijing has in mind.
Pito, however, might have spoken too soon based on how most countries currently define their policy towards China’s Taiwan agenda, which will be tackled in another article.
(MindaViews is the opinion section of MindaNews. H. Marcos C. Mordeno can be reached at boymords@mindanews.com.)
