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PHILIPPINE SHARES could decline further this week as the market awaits developments on government efforts to negotiate the United States’ plan to impose a “reciprocal” tariff rate of 20% on our exports to the world’s largest economy starting next month.

On Friday, the Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) inched down by 0.05% or 3.32 points to 6,459.88, while the broader all shares index rose by 0.07 point to 3,812.53.

Week on week, the PSEi rose by 1.01% or 64.31 points from the 6,395.57 finish on July 4.

“Global markets were rattled… by US President Donald J. Trump’s ‘Tariff Tuesday,’ which included a proposed 20% tariff on Philippine goods,” online brokerage 2TradeAsia.com said in a market note.

“The local market managed to post gains and make technical progress last week. However, the last two trading days showed that tariff threats present downside risks to the bourse,” Philstocks Financial Inc. Research Manager Japhet Louis O. Tantiangco said in a Viber message.

For this week, Mr. Tantiangco said tariff concerns will remain in focus.

“The US’ planned 20% tariffs against the Philippines is still expected to weigh on sentiment. Hence, investors are expected to watch out for clues on the Philippines’ trade negotiations with the US. Signs of progress may help lift the local market. But lack of positive trade talk developments may pull the market lower,” he said.

On Friday, Foreign Affairs Secretary Ma. Theresa P. Lazaro confirmed that President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. will visit Washington from July 20-22 to meet with Mr. Trump to discuss several issues, including the tariff rate.

“Investors may also watch out for our overseas Filipino workers’ cash remittance data next week for clues on the local economy,” Mr. Tantiangco added.

He placed the PSEi’s major support at 6,400 and major resistance at 6,600.

“Chart-wise, the local market is now trading above its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is taken as a positive sign. The moving average convergence divergence line is so far moving upwards above the signal line, reflecting short-run bullish momentum,” he said.

“With the lingering global trade risks, however, the market may still test its 200-day EMA this week. How the market defends its position above the 200-day EMA could play a significant factor on what its direction is going to be moving forward.”

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in an e-mail that the PSEi’s immediate support is 6,330-6,370 and immediate resistance is 6,500.

“The markets are still on a wait-and-see mode if Mr. Trump would be willing to compromise and settle for lower negotiated tariffs during the trade negotiations,” Mr. Ricafort said.

2TradeAsia.com put the PSEi’s immediate support at 6,300 and resistance at 6,500-6,550. — Revin Mikhael D. Ochave