Senate race poll shows massive ad spending fruitless for bets

If elections were held this January, all that big spending on ads would’ve been for nothing — massive campaign spenders failed to even crack the top 12 in the latest Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey for the 2025 Senate race.

Reelectionists Imee Marcos and Francis Tolentino ranked 14, and between 20th to 21st, respectively. Las Piñas Representative Camille Villar and former interior secretary Benhur Abalos also failed to make the cut, placing 15th, and between 18th and 19th, respectively.

All four are known to have spent a significant amount of money on advertising for the upcoming 2025 midterm elections.

According to a report by the Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism (PCIJ), both Marcos and Villar had already spent P1 billion each for their campaign ads on television and radio. The data covered their spending from January to September 2024. (READ: Are candidates funding their own campaigns? Camille Villar, Imee Marcos ads breach P1 billion)

Citing data from Nielsen Ad Intel, PCIJ revealed that Marcos began advertising in January 2024 and continued through September, a month before filing her certificate of candidacy (COC) in October.

Villar, on the other hand, started in March 2024 and ran ads until August, two months before her COC filing. In August, Villar significantly increased her ad spend to P598 million, followed by P477 million in September.

Marcos and Villar ad spending on traditional media accounted for half of the total P4.1 billion ad spending on TV and radio platforms.

Meanwhile, Tolentino was reported to have spent P371.7 million on TV ads, ranking him fourth top spender on the platform. He also spent P39 million on radio ads, placing him third, behind Villar and Marcos, who spent P183 million and P80 million, respectively.

Tolentino and Abalos, whose faces have been greeting travelers in the North and South expressways, reportedly had spent P6.3 million and P2.6 million on ad billboards, respectively.

If you think that they had spent so much on ads promoting themselves, that’s not it. They had also spent so much money on Facebook advertising. Villar is the top spender with P18 million from July to December 2024. Abalos came in second, with P8.8 million, followed by Tolentino with P4 million. Marcos, whose Facebook campaign operates on the page Imee for the PH, had spent P925,000.

Who dominated the survey?

Eight senatorial candidates from the administration coalition slate, Alyansa Para sa Bagong Pilipinas, dominated the winning circle. They are ACT-CIS Representative Erwin Tulfo, reelectionist Lito Lapid, former Senate president Tito Sotto, former senator Ping Lacson, reelectionist Pia Cayetano, former senator Manny Pacquiao, Makati Mayor Abby Binay, and reelectionist Bong Revilla.

Here’s the winning circle based on the SWS survey conducted from January 17 to 20, 2025, commissioned by Stratbase Consultancy.

• Ewrin Tulfo – 1
• Tito Sotto – 2
• Lito Lapid – 3 to 4
• Bong Go – 3 to 4
• Ping Lacson – 5
• Ben Tulfo – 6
• Pia Cayetano – 7 to 8
• Manny Pacquiao – 7 to 8
• Abi Binay – 9
• Bato dela Rosa – 10
• Bong Revilla – 11 to 13
• Willie Revillame – 11 to 13
• Kiko Pangilinan – 11 to 13

The survey was done by showing a list of senatorial aspirants based on the initial ballot released by the Commission on Elections.

Imee Marcos was initially part of the senatorial lineup of her brother, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., but later withdrew. She said she prefers to run as an “independent” candidate, although she is running under the Nacionalista Party. Imee clarified that she is not trying to play both sides, given her strong ties with the Duterte camp. Could this have contributed to her poor performance in the survey?

A week before the survey results were released, senatorial aspirant Francis Leo Antonio Marcos withdrew his bid and urged his supporters to rally behind Imee. For context, Francis garnered four million votes in the 2022 elections, largely due to his Marcos surname. He was initially declared a nuisance candidate, but the Supreme Court later issued a temporary restraining order.

Asked if someone asked him to back out, Francis said: “My principle is not for sale.”

Given that massive ad spending doesn’t guarantee a win — at least according to the pre-election survey released five months before the elections — will senatorial candidates adjust their strategies? – Rappler.com