February 26, 2025 | 6:42pm
MANILA, Philippines — Filipinos remain divided over Vice President Sara Duterte’s impeachment, a recent noncommissioned survey showed.
While a plurality opposes the House’s move to impeach Duterte, one in five Filipinos remains undecided on whether the vice president should have been impeached.
Public opinion research firm WR Numero found that 33.3% of Filipinos support the impeachment, while 46.7% are against it — falling short of an outright majority.
WR Numero President and CEO Cleve Arguelles, speaking as a political scientist, said in a press briefing on Wednesday, February 26, that Filipinos are shaping their views on impeachment based on “existing affiliation,” primarily driven by regional differences.
The survey was conducted from February 10 to 18, the week following Duterte’s impeachment on February 5, through personal interviews with 1,814 respondents representing Filipino adults aged 18 and above.
The survey has a 95% confidence level and a ±2% margin of error.
Political bulwarks’ strong influence
According to the survey, opposition to the impeachment was strongest in Mindanao, where 65.6% of respondents rejected the move, while only 16.6% were in favor.
Meanwhile, Luzon outside Metro Manila had the most evenly split opinions, with 38.5% against impeachment and 38.8% in favor.
In Metro Manila, 40.1% opposed impeachment, while a stronger 48.1% backed it. The capital region also had the lowest percentage of undecided respondents at 11.7%.
“We are still in the middle of somewhere, and I think opinions would form more whether in favor or against once the trial proceeds,” Arguelles said.
But who is the opposition?
He noted that opposition supporters not fully backing impeachment was “counterintuitive,” as the fallout between President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. and Duterte has led some of her supporters to identify as “opposition.”
Marcos’s revelation that he had urged the House to abandon impeachment efforts may have also influenced some administration supporters to oppose the move, he added.
This reflects how “there is no unified stance on the issue” amid shifting political alignments, Arguelles said.
Across socioeconomic classes, opposition to impeachment was strongest among Class D or the lower middle class at 49.8%. However, the same group also had the fewest (13.3%) undecided respondents, with 36.9% supporting impeachment.
In contrast, Classes A, B and C — the middle to upper classes — had the weakest opposition, with only 38.4% against impeachment and 42.9% in favor. Nearly one in five respondents in this group (18.7%) remained undecided.
Public opinion to ride on trial proceedings
Could the divided public opinion and the number of undecided voters influence Filipinos' preferences based on the candidates' stance on impeachment?
Arguelles told Philstar.com that it is “not a primary consideration now,” but suggested that this could be why the Senate has yet to proceed with the trial, even during recess, as impeachment could become a “key election issue.”
However, he noted that if developments such as petitions before the Supreme Court — either compelling or halting the Senate trial — resolve during the campaign period, impeachment could take center stage in the elections, pressuring candidates to disclose their stance.
WR Numero also asked respondents whether the Senate should convict or acquit Duterte, though it remains early in the process. A significant 42.7% said they were unsure.
“It’s clear in how the opinions are divided so far that there is no national consensus whether to convict or to acquit,” Arguelles said.
He added that public opinion on the impeachment will largely be shaped by the narratives and stories Filipinos are exposed to in the lead-up to the proceedings, if they push through, as well as how the trial unfolds.
Senate President Chiz Escudero remains firm on holding the trial when Congress resumes in June, but some lawmakers and civil society groups are pushing for an earlier start despite the upcoming 2025 midterm polls.
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