Romualdez to run against the odds of history in 2028 presidential race

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HOUSE Speaker and Leyte Representative Martin Romualdez is gearing up for a potential presidential bid in 2028, but according to political experts, he will be contending not only with political rivals but also with history itself.

In an interview, political analyst and academic professor Julio Teehankee pointed out what is often referred to as the "Speaker’s Curse,” a historical pattern in Philippine politics, where no sitting or former house speaker has successfully clinched the presidency in the post-EDSA era.

POLITICAL SIGNALS President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. tours the Philippine Pavilion at Expo 2025 Osaka with Deputy Speaker Duke Frasco. Taken amid rising speculation over the 2028 elections and intensifying Speakership rivalries, the photo has drawn attention for what it suggests about emerging alliances and Frasco’s increasing visibility as both a legislative leader and a close Marcos ally. PHOTO FROM THE OFFICE OF DEPUTY SPEAKER

“Romualdez will be running against history,” says Teehankee. “In our political experience since the restoration of democracy, no speaker has ever made it to Malacañang.”

He cited the failed presidential bids of former House Speakers Ramon Mitra in 1992, Jose de Venecia in 1998, and Manny Villar in 2010 — all of whom entered the race with political machinery and national prominence, but ultimately fell short.

Romualdez, who currently holds one of the most powerful positions in Congress, has been steadily building his national profile. However, the so-called Speaker’s Curse casts a long shadow over his ambitions.

Adding to his challenges, Romualdez, who is also eyeing a second term as House Speaker in the upcoming 20th Congress, is reportedly facing an uphill battle in retaining the top post in the lower chamber. At least three other lawmakers are being floated as serious contenders: Cebu Rep. Duke Frasco, who recently joined President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. on his official trip to Osaka, Japan; Navotas Rep. Toby Tiangco, campaign manager of Marcos’ political coalition Alyansa Para sa Bagong Pilipinas; and Bacolod City Rep. Albee Benitez.

Romualdez is also grappling with a growing trust issue. In a recent national survey, his trust and popularity rating was pegged at only 39 percent — the lowest ever recorded for a sitting house speaker. This rating comes amid rising public scrutiny over government aid programs tied to his office, particularly the Ayuda para sa Kapos ang Kita Program (AKAP) and the Assistance to Individuals in Crisis Situations (AICS).

Baguio City Mayor Benjamin Magalong and Vice President Sara Duterte have both accused Romualdez of exploiting the AKAP and AICS funds for political advantage. According to critics, these programs — intended as safety nets for displaced workers and families in crisis — have been used as “early vote-buying” tools, with reports of local officials and political allies appearing on beneficiary lists.

According to the Department of Social Welfare and Development, nearly five million “near poor” Filipinos received assistance under AKAP in 2024. But mounting allegations have linked the misuse of these funds to political maneuvering, including inflated lists and diverted resources.

Despite these controversies, House spokesperson Princess Abante has publicly denied that Speaker Romualdez is planning to run for president in 2028. She echoed earlier statements made by Romualdez and House Majority Leader Mannix Dalipe calling such rumors “premature.” However, his political moves seem to suggest otherwise.

Vice President Duterte revealed that close House allies have already been discussing Romualdez as a possible presidential candidate. Former Speaker Pantaleon Alvarez even claimed that Romualdez’s push for constitutional amendments through the People’s Initiative in early 2024 was meant to smooth his path to Malacañang — though the Senate later rejected the proposal.

Observers also note that Romualdez has been instrumental in consolidating power through the Alyansa Para sa Bagong Pilipinas, composed of Lakas-CMD and PFP, creating one of the strongest political blocs in Congress.

Still, early polling data paints a bleak picture: in a 2025 WR Numero survey, Romualdez garnered only 1.1 percent in presidential preferences, far behind Duterte (29 percent) and Sen. Raffy Tulfo.