Rice imports seen rising to 5.7 million metric tons

Upgrade to High-Speed Internet for only ₱1499/month!

Enjoy up to 100 Mbps fiber broadband, perfect for browsing, streaming, and gaming.

Visit Suniway.ph to learn

June 28, 2026 | 12:00am

MANILA, Philippines — The Philippines is projected to import 5.7 million metric tons (MT) of rice this year, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said, as local production is expected to decline.

In its latest Grain and Feed Update, the USDA raised its rice import forecast for the Philippines by 100,000 MT from an earlier estimate of 5.6 million MT, citing output pressures from rising input costs, lower planting intentions and reduced dam levels.

“Rice imports are projected to increase to supplement lower domestic supply, while ending stocks are forecast to decline due to lower production,” the US agency said.

USDA estimates are higher than the 4.8 million MT in rice imports that the Department of Agriculture (DA) earlier projected.

The country has so far imported 2.42 million MT of rice from January to June, according to government data as of June 11.

The country’s total milled rice production is forecast to reach 12.3 million MT this year, a 0.8-percent downgrade from the earlier 12.4 million MT production outlook, as rising input costs weigh on farmers’ planting intentions.

Fertilizer prices have surged since March, with global urea prices sharply increasing by more than 55 percent, the USDA noted, reducing farmers’ income and limiting their incentives to expand rice-planting areas.

The USDA said despite the DA providing fuel subsidies and partial seed and fertilizer support to farmers, industry sources noted that these measures only partially offset the burden of elevated input costs.

Compounding rising input costs and lower farming intentions, significantly lower water levels in key dams could pose additional risk to local rice production in lowland areas, the USDA said.

“Lack of sufficient rainfall substantially reduced water levels in major dam reservoirs critical to irrigating rice and corn-producing regions,” the report stated.

The DA said earlier that rice production could decline by 700,000 MT in the event of a severe El Niño.

The state weather bureau reported that the country may experience a moderate to strong El Niño by the latter part of the year until early-2027. The weather phenomenon was last recorded in 2024, when a significant portion of farm production was affected due to prolonged dry spells.