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MANILA, Philippines — Pig populations in Central Luzon and Calabarzon could have been wiped out by African swine fever (ASF) a few years ago if not for the government’s repopulation program, new research showed.
A recent study published recently in the Scopus-indexed Evaluation and Program Planning journal of Elsevier Ltd. analyzed the impact of the Department of Agriculture’s (DA) pig repopulation program as the country battled ASF, a disease that is fatal to hogs but not harmful to humans.
The study, titled “Ex-post impact analysis of the Philippine pig repopulation program,” is authored by Lary Nel Abao, Ruth Sonaco, Miguel Guioguio, Alvin Paul Dirain, Roland Fajardo and Joseph Frank Mgaya.
The study noted that the country’s pork output fell by 26 percent in 2021 due to ASF. Subsequently, the plunge in domestic supplies pushed pork prices upward, affecting vulnerable consumers and livelihoods.
The study focused on the impact of the DA’s repopulation program in three regions that received the highest funding allocations in 2022 and 2023, namely Central Luzon, Calabarzon and Davao region.
The DA’s repopulation program allocated a total of P1.44 billion in Central Luzon from 2022 to 2023, P858 million in Calabarzon from 2022 to 2024 and P242.14 million in Davao from 2022 to 2023.
The study mapped out two analytical scenarios: one when there was no ASF yet covering the years 2000 up to second quarter of 2019, while the other being the pre-repopulation program scenario from 2000 to end of 2021.
Furthermore, the researchers employed a cost-benefit analysis to evaluate the economic viability of the repopulation program.
The researchers also used the SARIMA model in analyzing the time series data on pig production since it exhibits seasonal patterns influenced by biological cycles, market demand and environmental conditions.
The study analyzed the country’s quarterly pig production data beginning the first quarter of 2000 until the first quarter of 2024.
Wipeout prevented
The researchers found out that the repopulation program was successful in arresting the downward trend in pig production in Central Luzon and Calabarzon.
If not for the repopulation program, pig population in Central Luzon could have been totally eradicated as early as second quarter of 2022 while hog population in Calabarzon would have been wiped out as early as first quarter of 2023, according to the study.
“It is interesting to note that in a no ASF scenario, the industry (in Central Luzon) would have continued a consistent trend of pig production volume with gradual annual growth,” the study said.
Central Luzon is a critical area of production since it is the country’s top pork producing region. The repopulation program added 127,369 live weight metric tons of pig production in the region in 2022 and another 180,188 MT in 2023, based on the study.
The authors noted, however, that the repopulation program was not enough in reverting pig production in Central Luzon to its pre-ASF levels because of the slower recovery efforts on the side of commercial farms.
In Calabarzon, the repopulation program of the government resulted in additional pig production of 137,723 live weight MT in 2022 and 233,204 MT in 2023, based on the study.
“In a similar way to that of Central Luzon, the swine industry of Calabarzon was set to continue a trend of annual increase in growth but was halted with the ASF problem evident in the significant fall of production volume in the year 2020,” the researchers said.
The effect of the pig repopulation program was minimal in Davao since farms in the region contracted ASF at a much later date than Central Luzon and Calabarzon.
Furthermore, the study was able to estimate that the repopulation program yielded positive returns across the three regions, indicating that it is indeed profitable and economically viable.
Calabarzon produced the highest returns compared to the two other regions. The pig repopulation program in the region had a net present value of P22.68 billion in 2022 and P38.69 billion in 2023.
The pig repopulation program in Central Luzon yielded a net present value of P20.58 billion in 2022 and P29.63 billion in 2023, while Davao region posted a net present value of P314.25 million (2022) and P666.59 million (2023).
“This study was also able to demonstrate favorable cost-benefit ratios and economic values that indicate the viability and practicality of the interventions delivered to beneficiaries and the sector,” the authors said.
Hike budget to sustain gains
The researchers warned that pig production may decline in the medium term if the current pig repopulation program budget remains the same since ASF continues to threaten local farms.
The government must double or even triple its current pig repopulation program to arrest the foreseen drop in pig production if the budget remains the same, according to the study.
The government needs to earmark at least P110 billion across four years from 2025 to 2028 if it wants pig production to return to pre-ASF levels. The amount is broken down as follows: P24.95 billion this year, P26.6 billion next year, P28.36 billion in 2027 and P30.23 billion in 2028.
The researchers estimated that pig production must increase by 6.6 percent annually from 2025 to 2028 to match its pre-ASF output of 2.32 million metric tons.
This means that at least 1.19 million fatteners (at 100 kilos each) must be added this year, 1.27 million next year, 1.35 million in 2027 and 1.44 million in 2028, according to the authors’ estimates.
“It is not necessary that the government shoulder all the investment requirements. The government merely acts as an enabler of the environment and as a jump starter to increase the confidence of commercial and backyard raisers in pig production,” the study said.
“Pig farmers will raise pigs naturally if it is profitable for them to do so,” the study added.
The study was the first to analyze the economic impact of the repopulation program for the pig industry.
