[Rear View] Point of no return: Can endorsements and foreign-funded trolls tilt election results?

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High public distrust, especially in the closing days of an election campaign, robs the incumbent president of his electoral advantages

As the midterm campaign period enters the point of no return, the political conversation has shifted abruptly to the issue of influence. 

Two topics have sparked heated discussions online. 

The first involves the ideal of political purity, specifically, whether party leaders endorsing candidates from an opposing camp constitute a betrayal of values and allegiances.

Former Vice President Leni Robredo’s endorsement of administration candidates Benhur Abalos and Manny Pacquiao has divided the already thinning ranks of the pink faithful. Robredo is running for Naga City mayor but she remains the guiding light for her hardcore supporters nationwide, her pronouncements, austere since her presidential election loss in 2022, regarded as divine mandates to the flock.

This time, however, a segment of the faithful has broken ranks over her endorsement of Abalos and Pacquiao. Online, her supporters are bickering, a circular firing squad that dooms any hope, however fleeting, of a revitalized pink base this May.

Regarding Kiko and Bam

The endorsement is more problematic for returning senators Francis Pangilinan and Bam Aquino. The April Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey showed the two pink candidates tied at 15th-16th spots, each with 21% preference. The same survey had Pacquiao at 12th spot, with 25%; and Abalos lingering at 17-18, with 18% preference.

Bicol votes could work in favor of the two administration bets, but it would be simplistic, if not absurd, to claim that the endorsement will be reciprocated by grateful Abalos-Pacquiao supporters who will automatically vote for Pangilinan and Aquino.

And such an argument, foisted by endorsement defenders, diminishes Robredo’s stature, painting her as another transactional politician. (An online video, that of Robredo calling Duterte candidate Rodante Marcoleta “senator” in a gathering, explained without certainty on the timeline and context, has further raised questions on Robredo’s political instincts.)

Foreign-funded operation

The second topic is more alarming, with long-term implications on national security, democracy, and constitutional rights.

Legislators and security officials have raised the alarm over the alleged existence of a foreign-funded operation to influence the outcome of the midterm elections. A security official went as far as saying they have a list of senatorial candidates who are “beneficiaries” of this insidious operation, and had they been asked during the recent Senate hearing, they would have given the names in an executive session.

Investigations by several media outlets, including Rappler, traced the resurgence in toxic social media attacks to the March 11 arrest of former president Rodrigo Duterte and his detention in The Hague. Facebook and TikTok, two popular social media apps, are the main political weapons for trolls, so-called influencers, and inauthentic online accounts engaged in a 24/7 keyboard warfare against the Marcos administration.

The incessant online assault echoes familiar talking points: the former president is a patriot and victim of political vendetta and foreign meddling, the bloody drug war is justified, and only drug pushers were killed. They also mock our claim on the West Philippine Sea, and attack President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and his family, critics and victims of the drug war, and legislators who had uncovered fund irregularities at the Office of the Vice President.

The recent Pulse Asia survey indicates that the online attacks may have been effective in denting public trust in the President and his administration, something that even the Palace acknowledged when the President’s spokesperson attributed the sharp and unprecedented drop in his trust and performance ratings to “fake news.”

Conversely, it has succeeded in rehabilitating the image of impeached Vice President Sara Duterte. Buoyed by the leap in her trust and performance numbers, she is now leaning on her newfound political clout to push for the shaky candidacies of presidential sister Imee Marcos and billionaire scion Camille Villar, an undisguised effort to lock in the votes for her Senate acquittal.

Losing advantage

High public distrust, especially in the closing days of an election campaign, robs the incumbent president of his electoral advantages: the political command over local officials and lingering endearment to the electorate.

The online attacks targeting the President and his programs are intended to move undecided voters in two directions: support all anti-Marcos candidates, which could be a difficult sell, or generate enough frustration and distrust to dampen voter enthusiasm on election day. In short, they want voters to stay home. 

A lower turnout lessens the market votes and gives the advantage to those who can muster bloc votes. Mindanao, based on surveys taken after the March 11 arrest, is solidly backing the so-called Duter10 candidates of the moribund PDP-Laban. The Vice President’s last minute political hustling is intended to fire up her supporters to turn out on election day.

Accountability for Big Tech

Congress needs to take a tougher approach against coordinated and foreign-funded influence operations. They needs to impose accountability, on the so-called DDS influencers and other fake news peddlers, the troll farm operators. and their funders. Accountability must also include the Big Tech companies who not only condone but seed online hate and disinformation in the name of profit. 

If allowed to proceed unabated, these nefarious designs would have far-reaching consequences. Foreign-influenced political personalities, if voted into higher office, will be in a position to reshape foreign and domestic policies, and to tinker with the Constitution. If left unchecked, these operations could clear the path for future leaders intent on institutionalizing the curtailment of constitutional rights, legitimizing ruthless actions against legitimate dissent, and surrendering our sovereignty.  

The stakes in this election just got bigger. – Rappler.com

Joey Salgado is a former journalist, and a government and political communications practitioner. He served as spokesperson for former vice president Jejomar Binay.