Poll: September inflation likely rose to 6.7%

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October 5, 2026 | 12:00am

MANILA, Philippines —  Inflation likely picked up in September as higher fuel and food prices, weather-related supply disruptions and the peso’s weakness reversed four straight months of easing, economists said. A poll of 13 economists conducted by The STAR yielded a median forecast of 6.7 percent for September inflation, higher than the 6.1-percent print in August.

Inflation, or the rate of increase in prices of goods and services commonly bought by households, has stayed well above the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)’s two- to four-percent target range this year due to supply shocks from food, energy and weather-related disruptions.

The Philippine Statistics Authority will release the September figures tomorrow.

Forecasts ranged from 6.3 percent to seven percent. If realized, September inflation would mark the fastest print since April, when inflation hit 7.2 percent.

Chinabank chief economist Domini Velasquez had the highest forecast at seven percent, driven primarily by higher fuel prices and a broad-based increase in food prices.

She said vegetable prices rose due to unfavorable weather conditions, while flooding disrupted the delivery of agricultural products from farms to markets. Prices of rice, fish, eggs, fruits, cooking oil and sugar also increased during the month.

These pressures were partly offset by lower electricity rates and softer meat prices, she said.

Velasquez said core inflation likely accelerated to 4.7 percent from 4.1 percent in August, indicating that underlying price pressures also intensified. Core inflation strips out volatile food and energy items to give a clearer view of underlying price trends.

“Looking ahead, inflation is likely to accelerate further in the fourth quarter and could peak in November,” Velasquez said.

“The full impact of the transport fare hikes approved this week has yet to be reflected in the inflation data, although some of the upside pressure could be cushioned by the suspension of excise taxes on cooking gas and kerosene,” she said.

Velasquez said the BSP could deliver one final 25-basis-point rate hike in October, which would bring the target reverse repurchase rate to 5.25 percent. The reverse repurchase rate is the BSP’s key policy rate and serves as its main tool for influencing borrowing costs in the economy.

BPI lead economist Emilio Neri Jr. and Pantheon Macroeconomics chief emerging Asia economist Miguel Chanco both expect inflation at 6.9 percent.

Neri said September inflation likely ended four straight months of easing and could start a “second inflation peak.”

He said food prices drove most of the increase as habagat-driven rains and flooding disrupted the supply and transport of vegetables, fruits and fish. Rice prices also stayed firm, while fuel relief proved short-lived due to successive pump price hikes in the second half of September.

“The Sept. 28 fare hikes will have a fuller impact from October, while wage increases could reinforce second-round price pressures. Unlike fuel prices, fares and wages are less likely to reverse, making inflation harder to unwind,” Neri said.

Neri said the BSP would likely maintain a hawkish stance after raising its policy rate to five percent in August. A hawkish stance means the central bank is inclined to keep interest rates high or raise them further to control inflation.

“This strengthens the case for further or possibly more aggressive tightening to anchor inflation expectations and support the peso,” Neri said.

Similarly, Chanco expects inflation to rise to 6.9 percent, mainly due to a sharp pickup in food inflation to over six percent from 4.6 percent previously.

He said firmer transport inflation would also add to the headline increase, reflecting the stubbornness in global oil prices.

Still, Chanco said underlying economic conditions remain disinflationary, given sluggish growth and growing slack in the labor market.

Reyes Tacandong & Co. senior adviser Jonathan Ravelas and RCBC chief economist Michael Ricafort, meanwhile, both penciled in a 6.7-percent print.

Ravelas said September inflation likely rose on elevated food prices, particularly rice, as well as higher fuel costs and lingering supply-side pressures.

“Inflation’s move to 6.7 percent is a reminder that the battle against rising prices isn’t over yet,” Ravelas said.

“While the increase is concerning, the key question is whether this is a one-off supply-driven spike or the start of a more persistent trend. For now, vigilance – not panic – is the right response.”

For Moody’s Analytics associate economist Eugene Tan and UnionBank chief economist Ruben Carlo Asuncion, inflation is expected to have hit 6.5 percent.

Tan said inflation likely rose mainly on higher energy prices, while the weaker peso added to import costs and broader price pressures.

“We see BSP pausing in October as the impact of previous hikes filters through the economy. Nonetheless, a hotter-than-expected print in September could push them to hike once again,” Tan said.

Asuncion said September inflation likely marked a four-month high, interrupting the disinflation trend seen since April.

“The expected acceleration was primarily driven by weather-related supply disruptions associated with intense habagat conditions, persistently elevated rice prices, a weaker peso that briefly probed the 63-per-dollar level and higher energy costs as oil prices remained well above year-ago levels,” Asuncion said.

He also said the September print strengthens the case for another 25-basis-point increase at the BSP’s Oct. 22 Monetary Board meeting.

“While growth concerns have become more apparent, inflation remains the more immediate policy challenge and policymakers may opt to reinforce their anti-inflation credibility and prevent elevated inflation expectations from becoming entrenched,” Asuncion said.

PNB economist Alvin Arogo and Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development director Ser Percival Peña-Reyes both expect inflation at 6.4 percent.

Arogo said inflation likely accelerated “mainly due to higher oil prices and the adverse impact of the persistent heavy rains on the retail cost of key food items.”

Deutsche Bank had the lowest forecast at 6.3 percent, saying headline inflation likely picked up by 0.1 percentage point in September, reversing four straight months of declines.

It said domestic pump prices remained elevated amid another rise in global oil prices, while rice prices also crept up during the month.