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Pope Francis (2nd R) waves at Philippine Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (L) during a ceremonial welcome at the Presidential Palace in Jakarta on September 4, 2024.
AFP / Tiziana Fabi
MANILA, Philippines — Sports betting can take a back seat this month because people are weighing the odds on who will become the next pope.
Following the death of Pope Francis last April 21, FairPlay Sports Media reported that guessing his successor is "one of the most popular betting markets in 2025" and "among the 30 most active betting markets this year."
Betting on papal elections traces all the way back to the 16th century. Pope Gregory XIV made it an excommunicable offense in 1591, but Pope Benedict XV abrogated it over a century ago with other existing canon laws at the time.
The 2005 and 2013 conclaves were observed by bookmakers, where notably in the latter, Pope Francis was not considered a favorite by many.
American cryptocurrency-based prediction market Polymarket currently has Piero Parolin of Italy as the frontrunner to be the next pope with a 37% chance.
Parolin was the Vatican's Cardinal Secretary of State under Pope Francis and will preside over the cardinal electors at the upcoming conclave. The last Italian pope was John Paul I, whose papacy lasted a month in 1978.
Related: Fact Check: If elected, would Tagle be the first 'Asian' pope?
A close second with chances rising up to 32% is the Philippines' Luis Antonio "Chito" Tagle, dubbed by many as the "Asian Francis."
Other names on Polymarket's list as of April 21, the date Pope Francis passed away, are Italy's Pierbattista Pizzaballa and Matteo Zuppi, Hungary's Peter Erdo, and Ghana's Peter Turkson.
Another online site BetUS has Tagle as the odds-on favorite at +125 (a $500 bet would lead to a $1,125 payout), with Parolin close behind at +150 ($500 bet = $1,250 payout).
Oddschecker, which compiles odds across different betting sites, sees the favor swinging back to Parolin with 9/4 odds ($500 bet = $1,625 payout) and a 31% chance.
Tagle is second favorite again with 7/2 odds ($500 bet = $2,250 payout) and a 22% chance, while Turkson is just behind with 5/1 odds ($500 bet = $3,000 payout) and a 17% chance.
The College of Cardinals will come together in the famous Sistine Chapel beginning May 7 to decide who will become the next leader of the Catholic Church. — with reports from Akshata Kapoor for Agence France-Presse
