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The local stock market will be taking cues from several Philippine economic reports—including inflation, jobs, and gross domestic product (GDP)—as well as corporate earnings while the recent weakness of the peso and concern over United States (US) tariffs will continue to cast a shadow over investor sentiment.
“The PSEi would be partly a function of the US dollar-peso exchange downward correction as seen last Friday after the latest signals on possible intervention from the BSP [Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas] and also the slightly lower US dollar versus major global currencies,” said Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. (RCBC) Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort.
He added that, investors will also be focused on the latest Philippine inflation data on Aug. 5; retail treasury bonds (RTBs) pricing on Aug. 5 and offering until Aug. 14; employment data on Aug. 6; GDP data on Aug. 7; and US President Donald Trump’s extended deadline on trade deals and tariffs on Aug. 7.
Philstocks Financial Research Manager Japhet Tantiangco said that “investors are expected to watch out for upcoming macroeconomic data for clues with the market’s move seen to depend on how satisfactory the figures will be.”
“A well-contained inflation figure and a GDP growth print significantly faster than the prior quarter’s 5.4 percent may give the market a boost.
“Investors are also expected to monitor the movement of the peso. A rebound of the local currency may also help the market, but a further depreciation may also bring the market lower. Finally, investors are expected to watch out for further second-quarter corporate reports,” he added.
Meanwhile, online brokerage 2TradeAsia.com said that, “With global tensions driving crude and forex [forein exchange] to elevated volatility, global inflation is a live threat, brace for inflation-hedge themes and capital flight (again, in favor of positive gradients) over the medium term if macro issues persist.”
It added that, “the second quarter earnings season is going to be a fount of new data, amid relative uncertainty in the macro. We expect some top-line growth to be buoyed by election spending and a summer tourism momentum and may propel some short-run rotation to consumer discretionary, gaming, and adjacent industries.”
The brokerage noted that, “June's inflation uptick and July's typhoons serving as a one-two punch this third quarter (especially logistics and agricultural output), disrupting capital formation and threatening to curb consumer confidence.”
This is on top of recent GDP downgrades that may prompt a reassessment of full-year 2025 projections, with larger impacts likely deferred to 2026 forecasts.
“Navigate this week with a tilt toward quality, defensive plays to hedge inflation risks, while eyeing selective consumer plays for momentum and second-quarter tailwinds. Stay nimble (global data drops could sway sentiment),” 2TradeAsia.com advised.
For stock picks, Unicapital Securities Research Analyst Jeri R. Alfonso is recommending Robinsons Retail Holdings Inc. (RRHI) as it is “on track to meet its full-year 2025 same-store-sales-growth (SSSG) guidance of two to four percent, supported by sustained consumer momentum and the positive performance across most of its core segments.”
She added that, “From a valuation perspective, RRHI is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.2 times, which indicates a 48-percent discount to its 10-year historical average of 15.7 times.”
For his part, Unicapital Research Analyst Peter Louise Garnace has upgraded Manila Electric Co. (Meralco) to a BUY rating “reflecting improved risk-reward as we expect MER to provide decent 2025 dividend yield of 4.6 percent, with a potential total return of 15.2 percent (10.6-percent price upside plus 4.6-percent 2025 yield).”
Abacus Securities Corp. also sees an upward bias for Meralco due to the brighter prospects of its power generation business.
