Papabile Tagle

Could Cardinal Tagle become pope? Maybe. Should he? That’s for the Holy Spirit — and 120 cardinal electors — to decide.

According to the Modern Catholic Dictionary, “papabile” is “an Italian expression denoting a prelate who, during a vacancy in the Holy See, or anticipation of a vacancy, is popularly regarded as likely to be elected the next Pope.” The term literally means qualified for the papacy.

So, as the Watcher in the MCU might ask, What If… Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle became the first Filipino Pope? It sounds like the premise of a gripping political thriller, or the climax of a classic mob story, except that the Vatican has always been more House of Cards than Borgia (even if this historical drama is just as offensive as the fictional world of POTUS Francis Underwood).

As Pope Francis’ health concerns stir anxiety among the faithful (and fake news among the infidels), and the 2024 film Conclave sweeps the awards season like a divine prophecy, the idea of a non-European Pope is once again gaining traction. After all, history was made in 2013 when Jorge Mario Bergoglio defied centuries of Italian dominance to become the first Argentine and first Jesuit to be elected Supreme Pontiff. Could a Filipino — one who has been dubbed as the “Asian Francis” — follow suit?

The Catholic Church has never had an Asian Pope. Not even once in its 2,000-year history. And yet, Asia is home to some of the most vibrant Catholic communities in the world, with the Philippines leading the charge as the only predominantly Catholic country in the region. As of 2020, more than 85 million Filipinos are members of the flock, essentially making our tropical paradise the Vatican’s largest overseas branch. If this were a democracy (which, let’s face it, it’s not), we’d have been owed a pope ages ago.

Cardinal Jaime Sin — who played a pivotal role in the People Power Revolution — was never a serious contender, partly due to health issues but also because his name, though of Chinese origin, was an ironic obstacle. He was known to welcome guests to the “House of Sin,” a self-deprecating joke that highlighted the challenges he faced as a man of the cloth.

Enter Cardinal Tagle, “Chito” to his friends. Charismatic, multilingual, and with a smile so warm it could end global warming, he is one of the most recognizable figures in the Catholic Church today. Often compared to Pope Francis in both demeanor and pastoral approach, he embodies the Church’s ongoing shift towards the global south. His credentials are impeccable. Among other positions, he is currently the pro-prefect for the Section of First Evangelization of the Dicastery for Evangelization and the president of Interdicasterial Commission for Consecrated Religious (whew!).

A former Archbishop of Manila, Cardinal Tagle was concerned with social issues that affected the poor while defending the Church’s position on — or, more precisely, opposition to — abortion, contraception, and “practical atheism.” He’s a close ally of the Pontiff and his ability to cry on cue during homilies is practically a papal superpower.

But what would a Tagle papacy mean for the Philippines? For starters, it would put the country at the epicenter of global Catholicism. Imagine the diplomatic clout — no longer just the perennial nice guy of Southeast Asia, the Philippines would suddenly be the spiritual nerve center for about 1.3 billion Catholics worldwide.

Forget soft power, this would be divine power. International summits in Manila would require visiting dignitaries to make courtesy calls not only to Malacañang but also to Intramuros, home of the Archdiocese of Manila. The peso might even appreciate out of sheer papal prestige.

There’s also the matter of the Church’s influence on local politics. While the Catholic Bishops’ Conference of the Philippines (CBCP) has never been shy about wading into national issues, a Filipino pope would supercharge the church’s influence — perhaps even shaping leadership like the ghost of elections future. And given the new starring role every Filipino Catholic thinks he plays, it wouldn’t be a stretch to say we could witness a moral renaissance under the shadow of a “kabayan” pope.

We could find lawmakers suddenly debating policies based on encyclicals to devise laws that are selfless and actually for the common good, policy and decision makers scrambling for the moral high ground on every national issue, and more politicians in churches and confessionals, not just for the optics, but out of genuine fear of eternal damnation. As a divinely ordained figure, he would be the ultimate check-and-balance system.

Of course, a Tagle papacy wouldn’t just benefit the Philippines. It would signal a paradigm shift for the Church, reinforcing its commitment to the developing world and revitalizing its message for younger generations. In an era where Catholicism is declining in the West but thriving in Africa and Asia, electing a pope from the Philippines would be a powerful acknowledgment of this demographic reality. It would also give the Church an advocate for social justice with a firsthand understanding of poverty and migration — issues that have defined Filipino Catholicism for centuries.

That said, Vatican politics is a labyrinth of tradition, ambition, and the occasional dose of God’s will. The College of Cardinals, despite its growing diversity, still leans heavily European. The likelihood of a Filipino Pope, while exhilarating, remains distant and uncertain. This might be a good thing, if we take to heart the homily of Cardinal Thomas Lawrence (Ralph Fiennes playing the dean of the College of Cardinals) at the opening of Conclave: “Certainty is the great enemy of unity. Certainty is the deadly enemy of tolerance.”

But then again, if someone had told the world in 2012 that a Jesuit from Argentina would take the throne of St. Peter, most would have scoffed.

So, could Cardinal Tagle become pope? Maybe. Should he? That’s for the Holy Spirit — and 120 cardinal electors — to decide. But if the current trend of art imitating life continues, and Conclave ends up winning big at the Oscars, don’t be surprised if a real-life Filipino papacy becomes the biggest plot twist of them all.

Viva il kabayan!