PAGASA tracking what could be first tropical cyclone of November

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The low pressure area being monitored is located 1,830 kilometers east of southeastern Mindanao on Thursday evening, October 30, outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility

MANILA, Philippines – The weather bureau is monitoring a low pressure area (LPA) that formed outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) early Thursday, October 30, which could be the country’s next tropical cyclone.

As of 8 pm on Thursday, the LPA was located 1,830 kilometers east of southeastern Mindanao, still outside PAR.

In an update posted on Facebook at around 10 pm, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said the LPA’s likelihood of developing into a tropical depression within 24 hours has already been upgraded from low to medium.

The potential tropical cyclone could enter PAR by Sunday, November 2, and further strengthen over the Philippine Sea.

PAGASA Weather Specialist Leanne Loreto earlier said in a briefing on Thursday afternoon that the LPA might eventually reach typhoon category. The weather bureau is also not ruling out the possibility of it intensifying into a super typhoon prior to landfall, possibly in the Eastern Visayas area, early next week.

But for now, the forecast is highly uncertain and can still change, as the LPA is still outside PAR and far from the country. PAGASA advised the public to keep monitoring updates.

The weather bureau expects two or three tropical cyclones to form within or enter PAR in November. The next three local tropical cyclone names are Tino, Uwan, and Verbena.

ITCZ, shear line

Meanwhile, the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is affecting Southern Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao from Thursday evening going into early Friday, October 31.

The ITCZ is a belt near the equator where the trade winds of the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere meet. It is considered a breeding ground for tropical cyclones.

The ITCZ is bringing scattered rain and thunderstorms to Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Western Visayas, the Negros Island Region, the Zamboanga Peninsula, the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, Misamis Occidental, and Lanao del Norte, as well as isolated rain showers and thunderstorms to Bicol, the rest of the Visayas, and the rest of Mindanao.

The rain is heaviest in Palawan, which is expected to see moderate to heavy rain (50-100 millimeters) in the next 24 hours, based on PAGASA’s 11 pm advisory on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the shear line, or the point where cold air from the northeast monsoon or amihan converges with the easterlies or warm air from the Pacific Ocean, is causing scattered rain and isolated thunderstorms in Cagayan, Isabela, and Aurora.

Areas affected by the ITCZ and the shear line should be on alert for flash floods and landslides.

The northeast monsoon is also bringing light rain to Batanes, but PAGASA said there would be “no significant impact.”

The weather bureau announced the start of the northeast monsoon season last Monday, October 27. – Rappler.com