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Locals walk over the dry part of Intang Lake in Pantabangan, Nueva Ecija on April 22, 2024.
The STAR / Walter Bollozos
MANILA, Philippines — PAGASA raised an El Niño Watch on on Wednesday, March 25, amid forecasts showing an increasing probability that the warming phenomenon could happen as early as July.
The state weather bureau said the watch was issued after La Niña ended on March 9 and neutral conditions set in. Under its alert system, PAGASA raises an El Niño Watch when the forecast probability of the phenomenon developing within six months reaches 55% or more.
El Niño raises the likelihood of below-normal rainfall across parts of the country, which can bring dry spells and droughts. These were conditions that devastated Philippine agriculture during the last episode from July 2023 to June 2024.
The World Meteorological Organization classified the 2023-2024 El Niño as one of the five strongest on record.
"Following the end of the recent La Niña event on 09 March 2026, [El Niño Southern Oscillation]-neutral prevails and is most likely to persist until the June-July-August 2026 season," PAGASA said in an advisory.
"However, model forecasts suggest an increasing probability of El Niño conditions as early as the July-August-September (JAS) season of 2026," it added.
The state weather bureau noted, however, that even during El Niño, above-normal rainfall may still be experienced over the western part of the country during the habagat season. — Cristina Chi
