PAGASA: Prepare for Tropical Depression Crising, southwest monsoon

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'Preparedness saves lives, kaya manatili tayong handa at ligtas,' PAGASA Administrator Nathaniel Servando tells the public on Wednesday, July 16

MANILA, Philippines – The weather bureau on Wednesday, July 16, urged Filipinos to brace for the expected effects of Tropical Depression Crising and the enhanced southwest monsoon or habagat.

In a press briefing past 5 pm on Wednesday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Crising was last spotted 625 kilometers east of Virac, Catanduanes, at 4 pm.

The tropical depression slowed down, moving west southwest at 20 kilometers per hour from the previous 35 km/h.

It maintained its strength, with maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h and gustiness of up to 55 km/h.

But Crising may intensify into a tropical storm on Thursday morning, July 17, and into a severe tropical storm on Friday afternoon or evening, July 18, while approaching Northern Luzon. PAGASA is also not ruling out the possibility that it may become a typhoon.

Here is the weather bureau’s updated rainfall outlook for Crising, released at 5 pm on Wednesday:

Wednesday afternoon, July 16, to Thursday afternoon, July 17

• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 millimeters): Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran

Thursday afternoon, July 17, to Friday afternoon, July 18

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Catanduanes
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Isabela, Aurora, Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Northern Samar

Friday afternoon, July 18, to Saturday afternoon, July 19

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Batanes, Cagayan, Apayao, Ilocos Norte
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Isabela, Kalinga, Abra, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Ilocos Sur

Floods and landslides are likely.

There are no tropical cyclone wind signals in effect yet. But PAGASA said it might raise Signal No. 1 in parts of Cagayan Valley by Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

If Crising maintains its westward movement or its size increases, added PAGASA, even Catanduanes could be placed under Signal No. 1.

The highest tropical cyclone wind signal to be raised due to Crising could be Signal No. 3 or 4.

“Preparedness saves lives, kaya manatili tayong handa at ligtas. Stay informed at sama-sama tayong kikilos upang maibsan ang epekto o panganib na dala nitong bagyong si Crising,” PAGASA Administrator Nathaniel Servando said in Wednesday’s press briefing.

(Preparedness saves lives, so let’s remain ready and safe. Stay informed and let’s all take action to mitigate the impact or hazards brought by Tropical Depression Crising.)

The tropical depression’s latest forecast track shows it may pass close to or make landfall in mainland Cagayan or Babuyan Islands from Friday evening to early Saturday morning, July 19.

Its projected exit from the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) is on Saturday afternoon or evening.

Crising is also enhancing the southwest monsoon. Below is the latest rainfall outlook for the southwest monsoon.

Wednesday afternoon, July 16, to Thursday afternoon, July 17

• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Palawan, Occidental Mindoro, Cebu, Antique, Iloilo, Guimaras, Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, Zamboanga del Norte

Thursday afternoon, July 17, to Friday afternoon, July 18

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Occidental Mindoro, Antique, Negros Occidental
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Metro Manila, Zambales, Bataan, Cavite, Batangas, Laguna, Palawan, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, Aklan, Iloilo, Guimaras, Negros Oriental, Zamboanga del Norte

Friday afternoon, July 18, to Saturday afternoon, July 19

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro, Antique
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Metro Manila, La Union, Pangasinan, Benguet, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bulacan, Cavite, Batangas, Rizal, Laguna, Palawan, Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, Aklan, Capiz, Iloilo, Guimaras, Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental

Floods and landslides are possible, too.

The southwest monsoon may also bring strong to gale-force gusts to the following regions and provinces:

Wednesday, July 16

• Palawan, Siquijor, Bohol, Camiguin, Southern Leyte, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands

Thursday, July 17

• Batangas, Quezon, Bicol, Mimaropa, Visayas, Zamboanga del Norte, Camiguin, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Davao Occidental, Davao Oriental

Friday, July 18

• Bataan, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Bicol, Mimaropa, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Basilan, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, Misamis Occidental, Lanao del Norte, Camiguin, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Davao Occidental, Davao Oriental

In addition, sea conditions might be dangerous for small vessels in certain seaboards on Wednesday.

Up to rough seas (small vessels should not venture out to sea)

• Western seaboard of Palawan; northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes; northern and western seaboards of Zamboanga del Norte and Camiguin; southern seaboards of Negros Oriental, Siquijor, Bohol, and Southern Leyte; eastern seaboards of Davao Region; seaboards of Surigao del Norte and Dinagat Islands – waves up to 2.5 meters high

Up to moderate seas (small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible)

• Northwestern seaboard of Occidental Mindoro; southwestern seaboards of Antique and Negros Occidental; eastern seaboards of Northern Samar and Eastern Samar – waves up to 2 meters high

Crising is the Philippines’ third tropical cyclone for 2025 and the second tropical cyclone for July, after Typhoon Bising (Danas) in the first week of the month.

PAGASA earlier estimated two or three tropical cyclones could develop within or enter PAR in July. – Rappler.com