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FLOODED. Residents wade through a flooded street in Cainta, Rizal, on July 22, 2025.
Eloisa Lopez/Reuters
The Philippines' weather bureau raises its La Niña Alert on Monday, September 15, citing an increased likelihood of La Niña in the fourth quarter
MANILA, Philippines – The weather bureau raised its warning status from La Niña Watch to La Niña Alert on Monday, September 15, saying that there is already a 70% chance of the weather phenomenon developing in the fourth quarter of 2025.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) noted that there has been “further cooling of sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.”
La Niña could begin within the October-December 2025 season, and might persist until the December 2025-February 2026 season.
“When conditions are favorable for the development of La Niña within the next two months and the probability is 70% or more, a La Niña Alert is issued,” PAGASA explained.
In the Philippines, La Niña usually causes an “above-average” number of tropical cyclones and “higher chances of above-normal rainfall conditions” in most areas.
“These could be brought about by several rain-bearing weather systems such as monsoons, severe thunderstorms, low pressure areas, easterlies, shear lines, and [the] intertropical convergence zone,” PAGASA said.
More rainfall would mean a greater risk of floods and landslides.
“All concerned agencies and the public are encouraged to continue monitoring and take precautionary measures,” the weather bureau said.
PAGASA had raised La Niña Watch last August 26. At the time, there was at least a 55% chance of La Niña developing in the tropical Pacific within six months.
For now, “cool ENSO-neutral conditions are still present in the tropical Pacific,” according to the weather bureau.
ENSO refers to El Niño Southern Oscillation, which the World Meteorological Organization defines as “a recurring natural phenomenon characterized by fluctuating ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, coupled with changes in the atmosphere.”
ENSO has three phases: El Niño or the warm phase, La Niña or the cool phase, and neutral.
In 2025, there was a weak La Niña in the first quarter, followed by a shift to ENSO-neutral. – Rappler.com
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