Oil prices to rise amid suspended transit in Strait of Hormuz, says DOE

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March 2, 2026 | 11:32am

MANILA, Philippines — The Philippines is racing to shore up its oil supply amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East, where shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — a waterway that handles about a fifth of global oil flows — has effectively stalled after military strikes across the region.

Over the weekend, joint military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran has since drawn fierce retaliation and prompted a pause in transit across the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman. 

While there's no formal notice of closure of the Strait of Hormuz, at least two vessels there have been struck, and an "unknown projectile" was reported to have "exploded in very close proximity" to a third, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre.

In a radio interview Monday, March 2, Energy Secretary Sharon Garin said the Department of Energy is tracking supply levels closely and will be holding an emergency meeting with oil companies today. 

“We are monitoring our supply because we are aware that if the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues for days or weeks… we need to make sure,” Garin told dzMM in mixed English and Filipino. “We already have in place what should be stored — 30 days minimum supply as per regulation.”

“Our priority is that the supply does not fall short and that we do not run out of oil… so we can balance our supply properly,” Garin said. 

She said rules require oil companies to maintain a minimum 30-day stock and that the DOE plans meetings this week to ensure firms comply with that rule.

Prices to increase

On whether prices will rise, Garin said this is already a guarantee given the situation in the region.

"The price will really go up. I will not sugarcoat. Now, even if you say that there is oil coming, it will go up because of the tensions," Garin said. "The stress of the market will increase the price until it stabilizes. So we need to expect that."

The Strait of Hormuz is essential because most crude and liquefied natural gas shipped from major oil producers in the Gulf must pass through it to reach markets in Asia and Europe. 

Even a temporary standstill disrupts cargo schedules, pushes freight and insurance costs higher, and feeds upward pressure on prices.

All of Southeast Asia is heavily dependent on the region for its petroleum products, Garin noted.

"All of [Asia] has this as a problem. It's good that we have ASEAN, which we chair, so we can discuss this," Garin said. 

The United States and Israel launched large-scale military strikes on Iran late last week, killing Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

This has triggered fierce Iranian retaliatory launches against US and Israeli positions in the region.

Civilian airspace across multiple Gulf countries — including Iran, Israel, Qatar, Iraq, and the UAE — has been closed or severely restricted.

There has already been one Filipino casualty: a 32 year-old caregiver who was struck during airstrikes on Israel.