Oil price hike seen next week, as Trump’s reciprocal tariffs shake up markets

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Another round of oil price pain is looming over the second week of April.

Based on the four-day trading Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS), gasoline prices may increase by somewhere around ₱0.30 to ₱0.70 per liter, while diesel could spike by somewhere between ₱0.20 and ₱0.70 per liter.

On the other hand, kerosene may not have any adjustments or could potentially rise or drop by ₱0.20 per liter.

Analysts are concerned over the impact of the intensifying trade war, and United States’ (US) secondary tariffs on Russian crude.

The Department of Energy’s (DOE) Oil Industry Management Bureau (OIMB) also cited that China’s refinery output was expected to decline in March and April due to maintenance works.

“US President Donald Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on trading partners, including the European Union (EU), China, and South Korea, stoking concern that a global trade war may dampen demand for crude,” said Rodela Romero, OIMB director.

Jetti Petroleum emphasized that global oil production could be strained, stating that, “stricter sanctions and secondary tariffs on Iran, Venezuela, and Russia, and cutting of Kazakhstan’s oil output have supported prices.”

“The prospect of rising supply after OPEC+ agreed to hike its oil output in May also weighed on prices due to the risk of an oversupplied market. The large increase in US crude inventories reinforced the bearish sentiment,” Leo Bellas, Jetti president, added.

With the Philippines slapped with the US’ 17-percent reciprocal tariff, domestic oil players are bracing for its potential impact.

Bellas said pump prices may find a slight relief.

“For oil, there could be a temporary drop in prices, in line with the market’s worries on the negative impact of tariffs on world economic growth and oil demand,” he told Manila Bulletin on Thursday, April 3.

“In the medium term, oil prices may go up due to the potential disruption in trade flows.

“It’s still a wait-and-see, given the concerns of possible supply reductions due to sanctions and refinery turnarounds in the region,” Bellas added.