Not trends but convergences

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Futurist Amy Webb recently staged a symbolic funeral for the annual trends report. Her witty and pointed message was clear: the traditional format is becoming obsolete. A lengthy annual report, regardless of quality, captures only a single moment; in a rapidly changing world, such static snapshots become outdated almost immediately.

This is the challenge leaders face today. By the time a comprehensive report is delivered, some of its content is already outdated as technology, business, culture and geopolitics now shift rapidly and unpredictably.

Webb argues that leaders must focus not only on trends but on convergences. A trend indicates what is changing, but a convergence reveals what is becoming inevitable. This distinction is critical. Trends are like weather readings, while convergences are the storm systems that result when forces collide. Leaders need more than a weather report – they need a storm tracker.

Today, artificial intelligence, energy systems, robotics, biotechnology and international competition intersect to reshape the landscape. Businesses that monitor only individual trends risk missing these broader shifts.

Webb introduces the concept of the agentic economy, where AI systems move beyond assistance to take action. These systems plan, decide, and execute tasks for people. As we delegate more responsibilities to digital agents, convenience increases, but so does the shift in power. If AI agents manage decisions, transactions, subscriptions, shopping and recommendations, the companies controlling these agents and their infrastructure may become the new gatekeepers of economic life. The internet may shift from serving human users to facilitating machine-to-machine interactions.

This significant change raises a critical question: What happens when convenience quietly replaces agency? Webb cautions that people may increasingly rely on AI not only for productivity, but also for reassurance, advice, companionship and emotional support. AI could become a therapist, dating coach, life adviser, or a constant guide. While this may seem futuristic, it is closer than we think.

The risk is not only technical, but deeply human. As we entrust more to systems we do not fully understand, we risk losing our ability to think, decide, and engage with life independently. A tool can quietly shift from helper to handler.

This concern extends to the workplace. Webb suggests automation may not cause a sudden wave of layoffs, but rather a gradual erosion through hiring freezes, attrition and the quiet replacement of human tasks by software. Job descriptions may change before employees realize their roles are disappearing. This shift is subtle, not abrupt.
This process resembles a slow leak, which can cause significant change before it is noticed.

The report also highlights developments such as polycompute – where classical, AI, quantum and biological computing coexist – and the rise of human augmentation technologies that blur the line between healthcare and performance enhancement. These are structural shifts, not minor changes.

Webb’s most significant observation concerns not technology, but how companies respond to it. She notes that many organizations are driven by fear and FOMO (fear of missing out). Some leaders fear being left behind, while others worry about making the wrong decisions. Others fear not appearing innovative enough, leading to reactive decisions. They adopt tools without understanding systems and build strategies based on anxiety, mistaking activity for progress.

Fear is a poor strategist, and FOMO is not a business model. Webb’s message is ultimately a leadership challenge: the future will favor companies that understand the broader systems at play, recognize convergences, and anticipate what these shifts make inevitable.

Webb also addresses creative destruction, the force in capitalism that renders old assumptions obsolete overnight. She likens capitalism to a constant storm, emphasizing that stability can vanish quickly. Industries such as newspapers have experienced this, and universities may face similar disruption. Business models once considered secure can become fragile as digital delivery, network effects, and new value forms change the rules.

The real risk is believing that outdated formats can explain the future. Static thinking must end – not because reports are useless, but because leaders must move beyond treating the future as an annual event. The future is a dynamic system, shaped by converging forces. Leaders who fail to track these changes risk making decisions based on outdated information. Webb warns that the next iteration of the internet may be designed primarily for machines, not people. This should prompt leaders to reflect.

The key questions are no longer just about technological capability, but about who benefits, who controls it, and the impact on human agency. And that may be the real leadership challenge of our age: not simply to adopt innovation, but to discern where it is taking us.

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