SENATOR BONG GO AND ERWIN TULFO FACEBOOK PAGE

By Chloe Mari A. Hufana, Reporter

NINE of the 12 senatorial candidates endorsed by President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr., made it to the top 13 of the midterm election race, according to a Social Weather Stations (SWS) poll conducted just days after the arrest of former President Rodrigo R. Duterte.

Re-electionist Senator Christopher Lawrence T. Go, who is not part of the administration slate, and Party-list Rep. Erwin T. Tulfo were tied at the top.

Only 12 senators will win in the May 12 elections, but three candidates were tied for No. 11, 12 and 13.

Mr. Go, a former aide of Mr. Duterte, increased four percentage points from the February poll, while Mr. Tulfo declined three points, Stratbase Group, which commissioned the poll, said in a statement on Wednesday.

The Marcos-Duterte alliance, which delivered a landslide victory in the 2022 presidential and vice-presidential elections, was fractured last year due to policy disagreements and competing political ambitions.

The tension between the two political camps culminated in the arrest of Mr. Duterte by Philippine police on March 11 so he could be tried by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity in connection with his deadly drug war.

A month earlier, his daughter, Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio, was impeached by the President’s allies at the House of Representatives.

“The Malasakit Center machinery reinforced his clientelist credit with the voter base, and much like politicians who performed during the pandemic — either good governance- or patronage-based — they’re still reaping the dividends off that,” Hansley A. Juliano, a political science lecturer at the Ateneo de Manila University, told BusinessWorld in a Facebook Messenger chat.

The centers, which provide medical and financial assistance to poor Filipinos, are Mr. Go’s flagship program as a senator.

The March 15 to 20 SWS poll showed a competitive race from third to 13th place, with margins between candidates falling within the ±2.31-percentage-point error margin.

Broadcaster and independent candidate Bienvenido T. Tulfo and former Senate President Vicente C. Sotto III were tied at third and 4th place with 34%, while Senator Manuel “Lito” M. Lapid slipped to fifth place with 33%, down three points from February.

Senator Ramon “Bong” B. Revilla, Jr., held the sixth spot with 32%, while Senator Pilar Juliana S. Cayetano and former Senator Panfilo M. Lacson, Sr., shared the seventh and eighth spots with 31% each.

Senator Ronald M. Dela Rosa, Mr. Duterte’s former police chief who is not backed by the government, was No. 9 with 30%, down two points from February.

Another independent candidate, television host Wilfredo B. Revillame, remained in 10th place with 28%, followed by Makati Mayor Mar-len Abigail S. Binay, former Senator Emmanuel D. Pacquiao, Sr. and Las Piñas Rep. Camille A. Villar, who were tied for 11th to 13th place with 27% each.

Just outside the top 12 were former Senator Francis Pancratius N. Pangilinan (24%) and former Senator Paolo Benigno A. Aquino IV (21%).

One of the biggest falls came from presidential sister Senator Maria Imelda Josefa Remedios “Imee” R. Marcos, who fell to 16th place with 19%, down five points from February.

On Wednesday, she said she had withdrawn from administration-backed Alyansa Para sa Bagong Pilipinas.

“I cannot stand on the same campaign platform as the rest of the Alyansa,” Ms. Marcos, a close friend of the Dutertes, said in a statement. “As I have stated from the outset of the election period, I will continue to maintain my independence.”

‘STRONG COALITION’
Of the original 12-member slate, only Ms. Marcos, Senator Francis N. Tolentino (No. 20) and Benjamin “Benhur” Abalos, Jr. (No. 18) failed to make it.

Stratbase President Victor Andres C. Manhit noted that while the unity between the Marcos and Duterte factions might have dissolved, Mr. Marcos has built a strong coalition that includes five major political parties that could win in May.

“Right now, it’s safe to say that the Marcos administration and the coalition they have built, which includes five major political parties, can win big in the May 2025 election,” he said in a statement. “Beyond the incumbency advantage, the President has fostered unity among various political forces.”

“While the unity between Marcos and Duterte may have dissolved, we’re now seeing strong alignment among traditional political parties and their allies,” he added, noting the Marcos-Duterte battle cry in the 2022 presidential race.

He added that the strong standing of Alyansa candidates was driven by their popularity, further bolstered by the President’s endorsement.

He expects support for many of these candidates to continue rising, especially as the local campaign period starts on March 28.

“These candidates already have a degree of popularity and existing support. When you add the President’s endorsement and the administration and its allies’ political machinery, it creates a powerful force heading into May 2025,” he added.

He said candidate visibility across traditional and digital media platforms remains a significant factor in maintaining their rankings.

“What we are witnessing now reflects the continued impact of media exposure, political advertising and social media engagement on voter preferences,” he added.

Mr. Juliano said the strong standing of Marcos-backed candidates shows the administration reinforcing its bases.

“The Marcoses want more in the Senate to reinforce their policies — most likely economic Charter change again — plus [they want to] ensure they don’t become a lame duck for preferred successors come 2028,” he added.

The Philippine midterm elections on May 12, 2025, will determine 12 of the 24 seats in the Senate, along with positions in the House of Representatives and local government units.

The SWS interviewed 1,800 voters nationwide for the poll, which had an error margin of ±2.31 points.