Midterm polls in BARMM deadlier than 2023 barangay elections – watchdog

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MANILA, Philippines – Politics in the Bangsamoro region remained a deadly game as the cycle of bloodshed deepened during the 2025 midterm elections, with more violence, more bodies, and a narrative that echoed the past.

At least 244 people were killed throughout the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), 103 of them in incidents tied to the polls, and another 265 were hurt during the last election period, showed data released on June 17 by the independent watchdog Climate Conflict Action Asia (CCAA). 

Between October 2024, when candidates filed their certificates of candidacy, and the May elections, 759 cases of violence were recorded in the predominantly Muslim region. Of these, 327 were directly linked to the elections, according to CCAA.

Election day saw five killed and 66 wounded in 14 separate confrontations, brawls, and armed clashes, according to the report. 

That same day, entire families were also forced to flee because of threats of violence, with the CCAA counting 125 displaced households, mostly from the non-Muslim indigenous population.

Compared to the previous election, the midterm polls were worse in BARMM. The 2023 barangay elections saw 438 incidents over four months, resulting in 165 deaths and 138 injuries. The 2025 violence stretched over seven months, with higher casualties and a deeper undercurrent of fear.

“The midterm election surpassed the deadly outcomes of the 2023 barangay elections,” CCAA said.

The outlines of the bloodshed were familiar: clan feuds, political rivalries, and localized violence between armed groups. These, according to CCAA, were compounded by intermittent clashes between government forces and armed groups identified with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters, and Dawlah Islamiya.

The data pointed to an escalation in violence and showed the continued failure to contain recurring election-related unrest in a region long gripped by conflict.

Election irregularities

Although fatalities on election day were lower than in previous polls, violence stretched beyond the May 12 vote, with attacks reported months before and after the elections, according to CCAA.

The group also documented widespread irregularities such as vote-buying, “flying voters,” illegal checkpoints, and intimidation throughout the region, particularly in areas with high populations of non-Muslim indigenous peoples (IPs). 

Between October and May, CCAA recorded 56 incidents targeting these communities, with at least 11 local leaders killed. The violence persisted after the vote, especially in contested areas like South Upi, Maguindanao del Sur.

Early response networks helped flag potential flashpoints, but their work was hampered by delayed mediation, poor coordination, and ineffective enforcement of the gun ban. CCAA noted that some MILF combatants were allowed to move freely with firearms during the ban and were detained only briefly, without charges.

Despite electoral gains by the MILF’s political arm, the United Bangsamoro Justice Party, many of the victors were familiar names, entrenched local figures allied with national parties like the administration’s Partido Federal ng Pilipinas. 

Opposition coalitions made modest advances, but traditional clans held onto their power, especially in strongholds such as Lanao del Sur and Maguindanao del Sur, it noted.

As the region looks ahead to the October 13 parliamentary elections, CCAA called for urgent reforms, the full implementation of the MILF arms decommissioning process, strict enforcement of the gun ban, stronger early warning and mediation systems, and expanded protection for vulnerable sectors, particularly IP communities.

The CCAA pointed out that without institutional and policy changes, the region risks repeating the same violent patterns. 

The promise of stable and inclusive self-governance in the Bangsamoro, it warned, cannot be fulfilled if elections remain a battleground.

Historical crime data

Responding to the CCAA report, BARMM’s new police chief, Brigadier General Jaysen de Guzman, said they would strategically prepare for their crucial role in ensuring security during the upcoming parliamentary elections.

Speaking to reporters on Sunday, June 22, De Guzman said the police in the region would establish a robust framework that emphasizes visible police presence and rapid incident response to safeguard the electoral process.

SIGNING. Police Brigadier General Jaysen de Guzman signs a guest book prior to his assumption of office as BARMM’s new police chief on June 22, 2025. Photo by Ferdinandh Cabrera/Rappler

As part of the preparations, he said authorities will also conduct a thorough review of historical crime data to better understand the cases of violence and implement preventive measures.

“We will try to check why these happened, and what measures we can adopt to prevent these from taking place again. We will review what happened, why it led to shootings, why many were killed, many were injured,” De Guzman said.

He expressed confidence in building on the successful security models used in previous elections, which saw no “failure of election,” a benchmark he intends to uphold.

“We expect the same, for the parliamentary election here in BARMM to be successful,” he said, emphasizing the police’s commitment to facilitating a democratic exercise free from fear and disruption.

He said preparations will also involve evaluating the personnel strength of each police station and identifying “friendly forces” who can augment their efforts, especially in areas with ongoing conflict or the presence of armed groups.

De Guzman stressed the importance of community engagement, citing past efforts to promote peace by working with local elders to mediate and resolve cases of rido (clan feuds).

“I believe everything can be discussed. Let’s not resort to violence, to arms. Let’s talk about it,” he said. “The elders are there with whom we can ask for help…. When it comes to the election, let the people decide. What the people want, that should be followed. We will respect that.”

To strengthen election security, De Guzman said he would coordinate with the Armed Forces of the Philippines more closely, particularly in high-risk areas or places known for the presence of nongovernment armed groups.

SALUTE. The newly installed BARMM police chief, Brigadier General Jaysen de Guzman (left), and outgoing regional police director, Brigadier General Romeo Macapaz, salute each other during the turnover rites on June 22, 2025. Photo by Ferdinandh Cabrera/Rappler

De Guzman, who previously served as police director in Northern Mindanao, assumed his post in the BARMM on Sunday with  BARMM Chief Minister Abdulraof Macacua, Maguindanao del Norte Governor-elect Tucao Mastura, Joint Task Force Central commander Major General Donald Gumiran, and other local officials and stakeholders from the security sector in attendance. – Rappler.com