May 2025 SWS poll shows tight race for ‘Magic 12’

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Except for the top two positions, the SWS survey shows a likely down-to-the-wire finish in the senatorial race with less than a week till election day

MANILA, Philippines – A survey held just days before election day indicates a very tight race for most of the 12 senatorial seats that are up for grabs on May 12.

The Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey was conducted from May 2-6 and commissioned by the Stratbase Group, a consultancy firm and think tank.

According to the survey, administration Alyansa para sa Bagong Pilipinas bet ACT-CIS Representative Erwin Tulfo ranks first with a preference rating of 45%. Trailing close behind was former president Rodrigo Duterte’s aide reelectionist Senator Bong Go with 43% preference.

The rank and their ratings is a switch from the results of a similar Stratbase-SWS survey held the month prior.

Ranking third in the survey was another Alyansa bet, former Senate president Tito Sotto, who had 37% voter preference.

The gap between Go and Sotto was the biggest in the “Magic 12” list in the SWS survey, with at least 6 percentage points between them. For the rest of the list, margins were tight — between 2 or 1 percentage points, or well within the survey’s national margin of error at 2.31 +/-.

The rest round out the “Magic 12” or those within the statistically probable list of winners in the senatorial race, based on the survey:

• Reelectionist Senator Lito Lapid (Rank 4-5, 34%)
• Broadcaster Ben Tulfo (Rank 4-5, 34%)
• Former senator Ping Lacson (Rank 6, 32%)
• Makati mayor Abby Binay (Rank 7-8, 31%)
• Reelectionist Senator Ronald dela Rosa (Rank 7-8, 31%)
• Deputy House Speaker Camille Villar (Rank 9-10, 30%)
• Reelectionist Senator Pia Cayetano (Rank 9-10, 30%)
• Reelectionist Senator Bong Revilla (Rank 11-12, 29%)
• Reelectionist Imee Marcos (Rank 11-12, 29%)

Of the candidates in the Stratbase-SWS poll, 8 belong to the admin-backed Alyansa – Erwin Tulfo, Sotto, Lapid, Lacson, Binay, Villar, Cayetano, and Revilla.

Senator Marcos, the older sister of the president, was once on the Alyansa slate but pulled out after the arrest of former president Rodrigo Duterte. She was later endorsed by Vice President Sara Duterte, President Marcos’ former-ally-turned-political-nemesis, alongside Villar.

Go and Dela Rosa are former aides of Duterte and are officially in the PDP-Laban Duterte slate. Ben Tulfo, a popular TV personality like his brothers, is an independent candidate. If both he and Erwin win, that would mean unprecedented three Tulfo senators in the 20th Congress.

Trailing Revilla and Marcos in the list are reelectionist Manny Pacquiao, popular TV host Willie Revillame and former interior secretary Benhur Abalos, all ranked 13-15 with 24% preference. Pacquiao is running under Alyansa while Revillame is a close ally of former president Duterte even as he’s an independent on paper. Benhur Abalos is also an administration candidate.

The lone two candidates associated with the once-ruling Liberal Party — former senators Bam Aquino (Katipunan ng Nagkakaisang Pilipino) and Kiko Pangilinan (Liberal Party) — rank 16th and 17th respectfully, with preference ratings at 23% and 21%.

The survey covers 1,800 registered voters across the Philippines.

They were asked:

“Kung ang eleksyon ay gaganapin ngayon, sino po ang pinakamalamang ninyong iboboto bilang SENADOR NG PILIPINAS? Sa loob po ng envelope na ito ang inyong balota para sa pagboto sa Senador. Sa Senador po ay pwede kayong bumoto ng hanggang labindalawa (12). Paki-shade o itiman po ang oval na katabi ng pangalan ng mga tao na pinakamalamang ninyong iboboto. [If the elections were held today, whom would you most probably vote for as SENATOR OF THE PHILIPPINES? Inside this envelope is your ballot for voting for Senator. For Senators, you may vote for up to twelve (12) candidates. Please shade or darken the oval beside the name of the persons you would most probably vote for.]”

Millions of Filipinos are expected to head out and vote on Monday, May 12 to select new members of the Senate, a party-list representative, district representatives, and local government officials. About 68.4 million Filipinos are registered to vote, according to the Commission on Elections. – Rappler.com