Market on edge as US-Iran talks fail

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April 13, 2026 | 12:00am

MANILA, Philippines — The stock market is expected to move sideways with a negative bias this week as investors continue to keep track of developments in the Middle East.

“Market will price in ceasefire talks progress that started this weekend. A plus would be Israel’s cooperation. If both happens, the Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) could stay above 6,000 and rise above 6,100, but any failure will ruin resurgent risk appetite,” First Metro Investment Corp. head of research Cristina Ulang said.

The PSEi capped off last week with three straight wins at 6,098.21, up by 1.66 percent week-on-week, as investors reacted positively to the announcement by US President Donald Trump to suspend for two weeks attacks on Iran.

Unicapital Securities head of research Wendy Estacio-Cruz said the index is seen trading sideways in the near term, as investors remain watchful of developments surrounding the US-Iran talks, which could influence global risk sentiment.

The US and Iran ended yesterday a historic round of face-to-face talks without reaching an agreement and the fate of the fragile, two-week ceasefire still unclear.

Vice President JD Vance, who led the US delegation during the 21 hours of talks in Pakistan’s capital Islamabad, said negotiations finished without a deal after the Iranians refused to accept American terms to refrain from developing a nuclear weapon.

“Meanwhile, market participants are shifting their focus to key domestic data, particularly the release of cash remittances on April 15, to assess whether heightened Middle East tensions have started to impact inflows,” Estacio-Cruz said

Philstocks Financial research manager Japhet Tantiangco said that despite the two-week climb, the local market is still deemed to be at bargain levels.

As of last week’s closing, he said the PSEi is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.3x, below its last five years’ average of 14.4x.

“Overall, investors are still advised to be cautious as the US-Iran ceasefire is deemed fragile,” Tantiangco said.

“Chartwise, in last week’s trading, the market was able to get past the 6,000 level and the 10-day exponential moving average (EMA). It was hindered from further advancing however by the 6,150 resistance line and the 50-day EMA. Moving forward, if there is progress in the US-Iran negotiations, these lines could be retested,” he said.