1 month ago
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Following the lower-than-expected expansion in 2024, the Marcos administration's economic managers are considering the possibility of adjusting this year's growth target.
Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of Makati Business Club's (MBC) general membership meeting, Budget Secretary Amenah M. Pangandaman hinted at the possibility of a downward revision of the six- to eight-percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth goal for 2025 should current developments necessitate it.
Last week, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported the local economy expanded by 5.6 percent last year, falling short of the government's revised target of six- to 6.5-percent growth rate.
“Maybe we'll need to adjust. So, if needed, we'll [make] the necessary adjustment,” Pangandaman said, adding that the Cabinet-level Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) will hold its first quarterly meeting in March.
According to Pangandaman, who chairs the DBCC, the economic team would decide on any adjustments on the macroeconomic assumptions once all data are complete, including GDP growth, inflation, employment, interest rates, and others.
Local inflation remained unchanged at 2.9 percent in January this year. Inflation for the entire 2024 averaged 3.2 percent, still within the government's two- to four-percent target band.
Shortly after the 2024 GDP data came out, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Eli M. Remolona Jr. signaled the possibility of reducing key borrowing costs by 50 basis points (bps) this year, noting that a 75-bp cut "might be too much."
Economists likewise aligned their forecasts to the BSP Governor's figure, noting that the central bank might not be overly aggressive in cutting given the external uncertainties such as the US Federal Reserve's own easing cycle.
Pangandaman dismissed the downside risks associated with US President Donald J. Trump's return to the White House and the policies he has promised to implement.
"As of now, it's just [Trump's] pronouncements and most of it is just the policy review of the existing orders and previous policy. So we wait until we get their final agenda in this administration,” Pangandaman said.
Further, Department of Budget and Management (DBM) principal economist Joselito R. Basilio said the government is likely to firmly retain six percent as the lower end of its growth target. However, he also said that target band could be narrowed for it to be more realistic.
Alongside this, he said the revenue collections target could also be tweaked downward. "Maybe there's a change in the level of revenues and expenditure."
"Maybe they will revise to make it more realistic. So, it can be both [revenues and expenditures]," Basilio said.
Pangandaman as DBM Secretary chairs the DBCC, with the Department of Finance (DOF), the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA), the Office of the President (OP), and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) as members.
